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Dynamic Correlations, Estimation Risk, and Porfolio Management During the Financial Crisis




We evaluate alternative multivariate models of dynamic correlations in terms of realized out-of-sample Sharpe ratios for an active portfolio manager who rebalances a portfolio of international equities on a daily basis. The evaluation period covers the recent financial crisis which was marked by increased volatility and correlations across international stock markets. Our results show that international correlations fluctuate considerably from day to day, but we find no evidence of decoupling between emerging and developed stock markets. We also find that the recursively updated dynamic correlation models display remarkably stable parameter estimates over time, but that none yields statistically better portfolio performances than the naive diversification benchmark strategy. The results clearly show the erosive effects of model estimation risk and transactions costs, the benefits of limiting short sales, and the far greater importance of including a risk-free security in the asset mix whether or not market turbulence is high.

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  • Luis García-Álvarez & Richard Luger, 2011. "Dynamic Correlations, Estimation Risk, and Porfolio Management During the Financial Crisis," Working Papers wp2011_1103, CEMFI, revised Sep 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2011_1103

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    2. Bauwens, Luc & Laurent, Sebastien, 2005. "A New Class of Multivariate Skew Densities, With Application to Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 346-354, July.
    3. Christian Francq & Lajos Horváth, 2011. "Merits and Drawbacks of Variance Targeting in GARCH Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 619-656.
    4. Engle, Robert & Colacito, Riccardo, 2006. "Testing and Valuing Dynamic Correlations for Asset Allocation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 238-253, April.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2006. "The Economic Value of Distributional Timing," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-35, Swiss Finance Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. R. REYTIER & A. Blanes & Q. Gaucher & S. Thiam & P. Debled, 2015. "Behavior of Covariance Matrices with Equi-Correlation Approach," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 2805027, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    2. Miralles-Marcelo, José Luis & Miralles-Quirós, María del Mar & Miralles-Quirós, José Luis, 2015. "Improving international diversification benefits for US investors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 64-76.

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