The Economic Value of Distributional Timing
We evaluate how non-normality of asset returns and the temporal evolution of volatility and higher moments affects the conditional allocation of wealth. We show that if one neglects these aspects, as would be the case in a mean variance allocation, a significant cost would arise. The performance fee the investor is willing to pay to benefit from our allocation is as high as the fee she is willing to pay to benefit from volatility timing. Many tests of robustness are performed, yet, the economic value of taking the non-normality and the temporal evolution of the distribution into account remains.