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Macroeconometric study of Ukraine's growth and reform

Author

Listed:
  • Klein, Lawrence R.
  • Kushnirsky, Fyodor I.
  • Maksymenko, Svitlana V.

Abstract

To analyze prospects for Ukraine's economic growth and a program of reforms, we construct two macroeconometric models—high frequency with monthly observations, and low frequency with annual observations. In search of consistent information, we critically examine available statistics including World Development Indicators for Ukraine. We generate several forecasts using the technique of importing key variables from a high frequency solution into the low frequency model, thus incorporating recent changes in economic trends. We simulate the model to perform policy analysis of the effectiveness of restructuring Ukraine's energy sector with raising tariffs and implementing the pension reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Klein, Lawrence R. & Kushnirsky, Fyodor I. & Maksymenko, Svitlana V., 2012. "Macroeconometric study of Ukraine's growth and reform," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 325-340.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:3:p:325-340
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.02.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dreger, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-13.
    2. Quan Chu, H. & Grais, Wafik, 1996. "Energy supply shocks: Macroeconomic consequences for Ukraine," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 643-688, December.
    3. repec:aia:aiaswp:wp94 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Mixed frequencies; Economic Reform; Ukraine;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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