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A small macroeconometric model of the Nigerian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Olofin, S.O.
  • Olubusoye, O.E.
  • Mordi, C.N.O.
  • Salisu, A.A.
  • Adeleke, A.I.
  • Orekoya, S.O.
  • Olowookere, A.E.
  • Adebiyi, M.A.

Abstract

This study develops and uses for forecast a small-scale macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy. The effects of three policy scenarios built around the assumptions of the changes that the Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to make to the Monetary Policy Rate are proposed and analyzed. Trade-off among the scenarios is identified in terms of their potential impacts on key macroeconomic indicators like inflation, exchange rate, output and lending rate. The results show that the monetary authority has to make a choice between the objectives of maintaining a stable exchange rate and lowering the lending rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Olofin, S.O. & Olubusoye, O.E. & Mordi, C.N.O. & Salisu, A.A. & Adeleke, A.I. & Orekoya, S.O. & Olowookere, A.E. & Adebiyi, M.A., 2014. "A small macroeconometric model of the Nigerian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 305-313.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:305-313
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.03.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kevin J. Lansing, 2000. "Learning about a shift in trend output: implications for monetary policy and inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Horváth, Roman & Komárek, Luboš & Rozsypal, Filip, 2011. "Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 523-536.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sam Olofin & Olusanya Olubusoye & Afees A. Salisu & Alarudeen Aminu & Uwatt B. Uwatt & Micheal A. Adebiyi, 2017. "Revision of the small macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy," Working Papers 032, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macro-econometric models; Policy simulation; Nigerian economy;

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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