Central Bank Credibility and Monetary Policy : Evidence from Small Scale Macroeconomic Model of Indonesia
In this paper, we develop a forward-looking small scale macroeconomic model (SSMM) of the Indonesian economy which is potentially useful for carrying out monetary policy analysis. The Batini-Haldane (1999) model is used as the theoretical underpinning for the development of the model along with the well-known Taylor policy rule (1993). The tracking performance of the model is found to be satisfactory. We conduct deterministic and stochastic simulations to examine the role of the central banks credibility in achieving the inflation target and to suggest appropriate monetary policy responses. Policy simulations indicate that it is crucial for the Indonesian authority to address its credibility for Indonesia to achieve a lower inflation rate. Simulations to trace out the inflation-output tradeoff frontier also show that a monetary policy rule that targeted both the inflation and output gap will result in less macroeconomic volatility. We also found that the inclusion of the exchange rate into the monetary policy rule as an additional feedback variable warrants serious consideration in the future course of monetary policy management.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200|
Web page: http://www.eaber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000.
"Open-Economy Inflation Targeting,"
NBER Working Papers
6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Wallis, Kenneth F, 1989. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 28-61, March.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
- Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Reza Siregar, 2002.
"Sources of Variations Between The Inflation Rates of Korea, Thailand and Indonesia During The Post-1997 Crisis,"
Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers
2002-29, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
- Siregar, Reza & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2005. "Sources of variations between the inflation rates of Korea, Thailand and Indonesia during the post-1997 crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 867-884, October.
- Taylor, John B, 2000. "Alternative Views of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: What Difference Do They Make for Monetary Policy?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 60-73, Winter.
- repec:nsr:niesrd:85 is not listed on IDEAS
- Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999.
"Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy,"
in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001.
"Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia,"
NBER Working Papers
8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, 05.
- Nickerson, Jack A., 1999. "Learning by Doing in Markets, Firms, and Countries. Edited by Naomi R. Lamoreaux, Daniel M. G. Raff, and Peter Temin. A National Bureau of Economic Research conference report. Chicago: University of C," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(03), pages 854-855, September.
- repec:adr:anecst:y:2002:i:67-68:p:16 is not listed on IDEAS
- Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001.
"The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter.
- Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," Discussion Papers 06, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001.
"Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
- Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2001. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 122, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Laurence Ball, 1998.
"Policy Rules for Open Economies,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp9806, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Forbes, Kristin J. & Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2002. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR," Working papers 4242-01, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Blake, Andrew P & Westaway, Peter F, 1996. "Credibility and the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting Regimes," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(0), pages 28-50, Suppl..
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22576. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shiro Armstrong)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.