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Central Bank Credibility and Monetary Policy : Evidence from Small Scale Macroeconomic Model of Indonesia

  • Enrico Tanuwidjaja

    (SCAPE)

  • Choy Keen Meng
Registered author(s):

    In this paper, we develop a forward-looking small scale macroeconomic model (SSMM) of the Indonesian economy which is potentially useful for carrying out monetary policy analysis. The Batini-Haldane (1999) model is used as the theoretical underpinning for the development of the model along with the well-known Taylor policy rule (1993). The tracking performance of the model is found to be satisfactory. We conduct deterministic and stochastic simulations to examine the role of the central banks credibility in achieving the inflation target and to suggest appropriate monetary policy responses. Policy simulations indicate that it is crucial for the Indonesian authority to address its credibility for Indonesia to achieve a lower inflation rate. Simulations to trace out the inflation-output tradeoff frontier also show that a monetary policy rule that targeted both the inflation and output gap will result in less macroeconomic volatility. We also found that the inclusion of the exchange rate into the monetary policy rule as an additional feedback variable warrants serious consideration in the future course of monetary policy management.

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    File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22576
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    Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 22576.

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    Date of creation: Jan 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22576
    Contact details of provider: Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
    Web page: http://www.eaber.org

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    1. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," NBER Working Papers 8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Reza Siregar, 2002. "Sources of Variations Between The Inflation Rates of Korea, Thailand and Indonesia During The Post-1997 Crisis," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-29, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    3. Nickerson, Jack A., 1999. "Learning by Doing in Markets, Firms, and Countries. Edited by Naomi R. Lamoreaux, Daniel M. G. Raff, and Peter Temin. A National Bureau of Economic Research conference report. Chicago: University of C," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(03), pages 854-855, September.
    4. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521663670 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:nsr:niesrd:85 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Blake, Andrew P & Westaway, Peter F, 1996. "Credibility and the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting Regimes," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(0), pages 28-50, Suppl..
    7. Pierre-Yves HENIN & Marie PODEVIN, 2002. "Assessing the Effects of Policy Changes: Lesson from the European 1992 Experience," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 67-68, pages 435-461.
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