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Monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey under the monetary conditions index: an alternative policy rule

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  • Vuslat Us

Abstract

This study analyses monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey using a small structural macroeconomic model. The core equations of the model consist of aggregate demand, wage-price setting, uncovered interest rate parity, foreign sector and a monetary policy rule. The aim of the paper is to analyse the disinflation path, the output gap, the output level, the exchange rate and the interest rate, and also the output-inflation variance frontier of the economy under various scenarios. The first scenario assumes that a standard Taylor rule is implemented as the policy rule. In the alternative scenario, instead of the standard Taylor rule, the MCI, Monetary Conditions Index - combination of the changes in the short-term real interest rate and in the real effective exchange rate in a single variable - is used as a policy instrument. The results indicate that the economy stabilizes much more quickly and shows significantly less volatility under this new setting. Therefore, the paper concludes that the policymakers should consider using MCI as an instrument when conducting monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Vuslat Us, 2004. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey under the monetary conditions index: an alternative policy rule," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 967-976.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:9:p:967-976
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000233195
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
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    7. Mehtap Kesriyeli & I.Ilhan Kocaker, 1999. "Monetary Conditions Index : A Monetary Policy Indicator For Turkey," Discussion Papers 9908, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa Kilinc & Cengiz Tunc, 2014. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Turkey: A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 1423, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Pelin Öge Güney, 2023. "Interest Rate Uncertainty and Macroeconomics in Turkey," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(2), pages 184-204.
    3. Kerim Peren Arin & Timur Han Gur, 2009. "Exchange rate versus monetary aggregate targeting: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2085-2092.

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