Central Bank Credibility and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Small Scale Macroeconomic Model of Indonesia
In this paper, we develop a forward-looking small scale macroeconomic model (SSMM) of the Indonesian economy which is potentially useful for carrying out monetary policy analysis. The Batini-Haldane (1999) model is used as the theoretical underpinning for the development of the model along with the well -known Taylor policy rule (1993). The tracking performance of the model is found to be satisfactory. We conduct deterministic and stochastic simulations to examine the role of the central bank’s credibility in achieving the inflation target and to suggest appropriate monetary policy responses. Policy simulations indicate that it is crucial for the Indonesian authority to address its credibility for Indonesia to achieve a lower inflation rate. Simulations to trace out the inflation-output tradeoff frontier also show that a monetary policy rule that targeted both the inflation and output gap will result in less macroeconomic volatility. We also found that the inclusion of the exchange rate into the monetary policy rule as an additional feedback variable warrants serious consideration in the future course of monetary policy management.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/scape/index.html|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, 1999.
"Forward-looking rules for monetary policy,"
Bank of England working papers
91, Bank of England.
- Wallis, Kenneth F, 1989. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 28-61, March.
- Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005.
"Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, 05.
- Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," NBER Working Papers 8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball, 1998.
"Policy Rules for Open Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000.
"Open-Economy Inflation Targeting,"
NBER Working Papers
6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Blake, Andrew P & Westaway, Peter F, 1996. "Credibility and the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting Regimes," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(0), pages 28-50, Suppl..
- Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2001.
"The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited,"
06, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter.
- Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2001.
"Simple Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rate Uncertainty,"
Working Paper Series
122, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
- Forbes, Kristin J. & Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2002. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR," Working papers 4242-01, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Hill,Hal, 2000. "The Indonesian Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521663670.
- Taylor, John B, 2000. "Alternative Views of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: What Difference Do They Make for Monetary Policy?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 60-73, Winter.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sca:scaewp:0514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.