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Methodological basis of modeling evolution of markets of products with long life cycle: a study of the civil aircrafts’ market

  • Varshavsky, Leonid

    ()

    (Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia)

Approach to modeling evolution of market of civil aircraft is proposed. The study of prospects of the US passenger traffic is carried out on the basis of the constructed econometric model of oligopoly in airline industry. Scenarios of key indicators of the market (market structure, revenue passenger miles, aircraft fleet, etc.) are built. Influence of jet fuel prices on the future of the industry is analyzed. In the article linear dynamic model of learning, with taking into account organizational forgetting in aircraft manufacturing, is built. It was applied to the study of the effects of learning and forgetting in aircraft production in Boeing and Airbus. Utilization of such a model makes it significantly easier computation of optimal strategies of companies with durable lifecycle of products. An approach to forming requirements to indicators of new breakthrough technique is proposed (with application to the market of narrow-bodied aircraft)

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Article provided by Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS" in its journal Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 53-74

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Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0054
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/

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  1. C. Lanier Benkard, 2000. "Learning and Forgetting: The Dynamics of Aircraft Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1034-1054, September.
  2. C. Lanier Benkard, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 581-611.
  3. Irwin, Douglas & Pavcnik, Nina, 2003. "Airbus versus Boeing Revisited: International Competition in the Aircraft Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 3876, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Gordon, Stephen, 1992. "Costs of Adjustment, the Aggregation Problem and Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 422-29, August.
  5. Argote, L. & Epple, D., 1990. "Learning Curves In Manufacturing," GSIA Working Papers 89-90-02, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
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