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The Accuracy of USDA's Export Forecasts

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  • MacDonald, Stephen

Abstract

USDA's quarterly forecasts of fiscal year agricultural exports by commodity and region were examined for their reliability in predicting annual changes during 1977-89. Most of the forecasts were strongly correlated with actual exports. Most obvious exceptions probably stemmed from rounding errors. Bias was not a problem for the forecasts of total exports in any quarter, nor for most of the commodity forecasts. There was some upward bias in the forecasts for less developed countries, and downward bias for some developed countries. The USDA forecasts were conservative; they were more likely to underestimate the magnitude of change than to overestimate it.

Suggested Citation

  • MacDonald, Stephen, 1992. "The Accuracy of USDA's Export Forecasts," Staff Reports 278679, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278679
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278679
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/278679/files/ers-report-576.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-124, March.
    2. Gardner, George R. & Skully, Davide W., 1986. "The Conduct Of Wheat Marketing In North Africa," Staff Reports 277903, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Kost, William E., 1980. "Model Validation And The Net Trade Model," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 32(02), pages 1-16, April.
    4. James M. Thomson, 1974. "Analysis of the Accuracy of USDA Hog Farrowings Statistics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1213-1217.
    5. J. Kimball Dietrich & Alfredo D. Gutierrez, 1973. "An Evaluation of Short-Term Forecasts of Coffee and Cocoa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(1), pages 93-99.
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    2. MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark, 2016. "Detecting the Sources of Information Rigidity: Analyzing Forecast Bias and Smoothing in USDA’s Soybean Forecasts," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235349, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark & Cooke, Bryce, 2017. "The Evolution of Inefficiency in USDA’s Forecasts of U.S. and World Soybean Markets," MPRA Paper 87545, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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