Market Efficiency and Rational Expectations
The paper studies the financial market efficiency based on the data from Tallinn Stock Exchange, the rationality of expectations that is treated as financial rationality and the time series properties of inflation time series to get the forecasting model. The hypotheses to be tested are of interest to both macroeconomists and policy-makers. Two time periods can be distinguished for the modelling purposes in the case of CPI. During the first period the concept of rational expectations is clearly non-usable in macroeconomic models of that period. It can probably be used during the second period. Three time periods can be distinguished in market data. Clear improvement of market efficiency has been found in Estonian capital market. The study relies both on the economic theory and on time series analysis. The authors use banking statistics and macroeconomic data on Estonia.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Working Papers in Economics.School of Economics and Business Administration,Tallinn University of Technology (TUTWPE), Pages 139-152|
|Note:||This research was conducted with support from the Estonian Science Foundation (Research Grants 5146 and 5185).|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +(372)620 3535
Fax: +(372)620 3946
Web page: http://majandus.ttu.ee
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
- Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2000. "The Evolution of Stock Markets in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 456-472, September.
- Rebecca Emerson & Stephen Hall & Anna Zalewska-Mitura, 1997.
"Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares,"
Economic Change and Restructuring,
Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 75-90, May.
- Emerson, Rebecca & Hall, Stephen G & Zalewska-Mitura, Anna, 1997. " Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 75-90.
- Rebecca Emerson & Stephen G. Hall & Anna Zalewska-Mitura, . "Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares," Ace Project Memoranda 96/18, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
- Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-24, March.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
- Chun, Rodney M., 2000. "Compensation vouchers and equity markets: Evidence from Hungary," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1155-1178, July.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
NBER Working Papers
0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ttu:wpaper:112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Urve Venesaar)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.