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Market Efficiency and Rational Expectations

  • Kaie Kerem


    (Department of Economics at Tallinn University of Technology)

  • Enn Listra


    (Department of Economics at Tallinn University of Technology)

  • Katrin Rahu


    (Department of Economics at Tallinn University of Technology)

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    The paper studies the financial market efficiency based on the data from Tallinn Stock Exchange, the rationality of expectations that is treated as financial rationality and the time series properties of inflation time series to get the forecasting model. The hypotheses to be tested are of interest to both macroeconomists and policy-makers. Two time periods can be distinguished for the modelling purposes in the case of CPI. During the first period the concept of rational expectations is clearly non-usable in macroeconomic models of that period. It can probably be used during the second period. Three time periods can be distinguished in market data. Clear improvement of market efficiency has been found in Estonian capital market. The study relies both on the economic theory and on time series analysis. The authors use banking statistics and macroeconomic data on Estonia.

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    Paper provided by Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology in its series Working Papers with number 112.

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    Length: 14
    Date of creation: 2004
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published in Working Papers in Economics.School of Economics and Business Administration,Tallinn University of Technology (TUTWPE), Pages 139-152
    Handle: RePEc:ttu:wpaper:112
    Note: This research was conducted with support from the Estonian Science Foundation (Research Grants 5146 and 5185).
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    1. Rebecca Emerson & Stephen G. Hall & Anna Zalewska-Mitura, . "Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares," Ace Project Memoranda 96/18, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    2. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2000. "The Evolution of Stock Markets in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 456-472, September.
    3. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
    4. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Chun, Rodney M., 2000. "Compensation vouchers and equity markets: Evidence from Hungary," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1155-1178, July.
    6. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-24, March.
    7. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    9. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
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