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Structural Breaks in Seemingly Unrelated Regression Models

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  • Shahnaz Parsaeian

    (Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045)

Abstract

This paper develops an efficient Stein-like shrinkage estimator for estimating slope parameters under structural breaks in seemingly unrelated regression models, which is then used for forecasting. The proposed method is a weighted average of two estimators: a restricted estimator that estimates the parameters under the restriction of no break in the coefficients, and an unrestricted estimator that considers break points and estimates the parameters using the observations within each regime. It is established that the asymptotic risk of the Stein-like shrinkage estimator is smaller than that of the unrestricted estimator, which is the method typically used to estimate the slope coefficients under structural breaks. Furthermore, this paper proposes an averaging minimal mean squared error estimator in which the averaging weight is derived by minimizing its asymptotic risk. The superiority of the two proposed estimators over the unrestricted estimator in terms of the mean squared forecast errors are also derived. Further, analytical comparison between the asymptotic risks of the proposed estimators is provided. Insights from the theoretical analysis are demonstrated in Monte Carlo simulations, and through an empirical example of forecasting output growth rates of G7 countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahnaz Parsaeian, 2023. "Structural Breaks in Seemingly Unrelated Regression Models," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202308, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:202308
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    File URL: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/2023Papers/202308.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. S. Maddala & Hongyi Li & V. K. Srivastava, 2001. "A Comparative Study of Different Shrinkage Estimators for Panel Data Models," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 2(1), pages 1-30, May.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December.
    3. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084.
    5. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F. (ed.), 2011. "The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195398649.
    6. Maasoumi, Esfandiar, 1978. "A Modified Stein-like Estimator for the Reduced Form Coefficients of Simultaneous Equations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(3), pages 695-703, May.
    7. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Seemingly unrelated regression; Structural breaks; Stein-like shrinkage estimator; Minimal mean squared error estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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