IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Redes neuronales para predecir el tipo de cambio diario

Author Info

  • Barrera, Carlos R.

    ()

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

Un problema recurrente es que los modelos estructurales de determinación del tipo de cambio no logran predecirlo con mayor precisión que un camino aleatorio. El objetivo de la presente investigación es verificar si es posible obtener proyecciones relativamente precisas generadas por un grupo de modelos econométricos para el tipo de cambio diario sobre la base de la muestra disponible enero 2004 - setiembre 2008. Los modelos a compararse en términos predictivos son: (a) camino aleatorio en el nivel del tipo de cambio; (b) auto-regresión con p rezagos en la variación del tipo de cambio; (c) perceptrones con p rezagos en la variación del tipo de cambio y (d) auto-regresión fraccional con p rezagos en el nivel del tipo de cambio. Los resultados obtenidos confirman que los perceptrones poseen la capacidad para anticipar el patrón de los movimientos diarios en el tipo de cambio, especialmente cuando se utiliza el spread entre el tipo de cambio venta y compra como porcentaje del tipo de cambio promedio de estas dos cotizaciones, la depreciación diaria del yen contra el dólar americano y el diferencial de tasas domésticas de interés interbancarias en ambas monedas.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2010/Documento-de-Trabajo-01-2010.pdf
File Function: Application/pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2010-001.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2010-001
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Jr. Miro Quesada 441, Lima

Phone: 427-6250 ext. 3841
Fax: 426-6125
Web page: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe

More information through EDIRC

Keywords: Auge crediticio; política monetaria;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
  • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
  • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
  • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Olgun, Hasan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2008. "Linkages between the center and periphery stock prices: Evidence from the vector ARFIMA model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 512-519, May.
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  5. Jan J. J. Groen, 1999. "Long horizon predictability of exchange rates: Is it for real?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 451-469.
  6. Rech, Gianluigi & Teräsvirta, Timo & Tschernig, Rolf, 1999. "A simple variable selection technique for nonlinear models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 296, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 Apr 2000.
  7. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "A Scapegoat Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 10245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Yang, Kun & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2006. "Does the prediction horizon matter for the forward premium anomaly? Evidence from panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 255-260, November.
  9. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal, Dilek, 2005. "Performance evaluation of judgemental directional exchange rate predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 473-489.
  10. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  11. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  12. Swanson, Norman R. & White, Halbert, 1997. "Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 439-461, December.
  13. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer, 2007. "Non-trading day effects in asymmetric conditional and stochastic volatility models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(1), pages 113-123, 03.
  14. Charles Bond & Ken Richardson, 2004. "Seeing the FisherZ-transformation," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 291-303, June.
  15. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  16. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as in new window


Cited by:

  1. Barrera, Carlos R., 2011. "Impacto amplificador del ajuste de inventarios ante choques de demanda según especificaciones flexibles," Working Papers 2011-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2010-001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Research Unit)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.