IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/cesifo/v62y2016i4p650-671..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Monetary Value of Family Policy Measures in Germany over the Life Cycle: Evidence from a Dynamic Microsimulation Model

Author

Listed:
  • Holger Bonin
  • Karsten Reuss
  • Holger Stichnoth

Abstract

This article quantifies the monetary value of key family policy measures in Germany over the life cycle. The analysis is based on a dynamic microsimulation model that combines simulated life cycles for a base population from the 2009 wave of the German Socio-Economic Panel with a comprehensive tax-benefit model. The results indicate that households in Germany receive family- and marriage-related transfers of considerable monetary value, yet there is also substantial variation behind the population average. Moreover, it is shown that some measures, such as income tax splitting, may make individuals in fact worse off, in financial terms, over the long course, as a result of negative labour supply incentives which are reinforced through detrimental effects on human capital accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Bonin & Karsten Reuss & Holger Stichnoth, 2016. "The Monetary Value of Family Policy Measures in Germany over the Life Cycle: Evidence from a Dynamic Microsimulation Model," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(4), pages 650-671.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:62:y:2016:i:4:p:650-671.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifw014
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bonin, Holger & Pfeiffer, Friedhelm & Reuß, Karsten & Stichnoth, Holger, 2013. "Mikrosimulation ausgewählter ehe- und familienbezogener Leistungen im Lebenszyklus: Gutachten für die Prognos AG. Forschungsbericht," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 111441.
    2. Holger Stichnoth & Raphael Abiry & Karsten Reuss, 2015. "Completed fertility effects of family policy measures: evidence from a life-cycle model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1726-1733.
    3. Holger Stichnoth, 2020. "Short-run fertility effects of parental leave benefits: evidence from a structural model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 143-168, July.
    4. Peter Levell & Jonathan Shaw, 2016. "Constructing Full Adult Life-cycles from Short Panels," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(2), pages 5-40.
    5. Colombo, Giulia, 2008. "Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models: A Comparison of Different Approaches," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-054, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Moshe Hazan & Hosny Zoabi, 2015. "Do Highly Educated Women Choose Smaller Families?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(587), pages 1191-1226, September.
    7. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    8. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    10. Martin Werding & Herbert Hofmann, 2006. "The fiscal balance of a child in the German tax and social system," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 28-36, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Benjamin & Hügle, Dominik, 2020. "The private and fiscal returns to higher education: A simulation approach for a young German cohort," Discussion Papers 2020/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Bonin, Holger & Camarero Garcia, Sebastian & Lay, Max & Liu, Vivien & Neisser, Carina & Ody, Margard & Riedel, Lukas & Stichnoth, Holger & Ungerer, Martin & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2018. "Machbarkeitsstudie und Ableitung von Forschungsfragen zu Bedeutung, Inanspruchnahme und Verteilungswirkungen von gesellschaftlich notwendigen Dienstleistungen. Endbericht," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 184658.
    3. Bönke, Timm & Glaubitz, Rick & Göbler, Konstantin & Harnack, Astrid & Pape, Astrid & Wetter, Miriam, 2020. "Die Entwicklung und Prognose von Lebenserwerbseinkommen in Deutschland," Discussion Papers 2020/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. Ivica Urban & Martina Pezer, 2018. "Microsimulation of Child Benefits: A Review of Studies," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(3), pages 134-169.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Holger Bonin & Karsten Reuss & Holger Stichnoth, 2015. "Life-Cycle Incidence of Family Policy Measures in Germany: Evidence from a Dynamic Microsimulation Model," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 770, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    2. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula E. Gobbi, 2015. "Fertility and Childlessness in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1852-1882, June.
    3. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2016. "Comparative advantage, international trade, and fertility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 48-66.
    4. Matthias Doepke & Anne Hannusch & Fabian Kindermann & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," NBER Working Papers 29948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Micaela Bassford & Hayley Fisher, 2020. "The Impact of Paid Parental Leave on Fertility Intentions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(315), pages 402-430, December.
    6. Michael Bar & Moshe Hazan & Oksana Leukhina & David Weiss & Hosny Zoabi, 2018. "Why did rich families increase their fertility? Inequality and marketization of child care," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 427-463, December.
    7. Bick, Alexander, 2010. "The quantitative role of child care for female labor force participation and fertility," MPRA Paper 25474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rick Glaubitz & Astrid Harnack-Eber & Miriam Wetter, 2022. "The Gender Gap in Lifetime Earnings: The Role of Parenthood," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2001, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Hippolyte d’ALBIS & Paula E. GOBBI & Angela GREULICH, 2017. "Having a Second Child and Access to Childcare : Evidence from European Countries," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 177-210, June.
    10. Stichnoth, Holger, 2016. "Verteilungswirkungen ehe- und familienbezogener Leistungen und Maßnahmen: Kurzexpertise," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 144169.
    11. Hans Fehr & Daniela Ujhelyiova, 2013. "Fertility, Female Labor Supply, and Family Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(2), pages 138-165, May.
    12. Alexander Bick, 2016. "The Quantitative Role Of Child Care For Female Labor Force Participation And Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 639-668, June.
    13. Holger Bonin & Reinhold Schnabel & Holger Stichnoth, 2014. "Zur Effizienz der ehe- und familienbezogenen Leistungen in Deutschland im Hinblick auf soziale Sicherungs- und Beschäftigungsziele," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 83(1), pages 29-48.
    14. Cordoba, Juan Carlos & Ripoll, Marla, 2012. "Barro-Becker with Credit Frictions," Staff General Research Papers Archive 35531, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Holger Stichnoth & Raphael Abiry & Karsten Reuss, 2015. "Completed fertility effects of family policy measures: evidence from a life-cycle model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1726-1733.
    16. Ratbek Dzhumashev & Ainura Tursunalieva, 2023. "Social externalities, endogenous childcare costs, and fertility choice," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 397-429, January.
    17. Takuya Obara & Yoshitomo Ogawa, 2020. "Optimal Taxation in an Endogenous Fertility Model with Non-Cooperative Couples," Discussion Paper Series 211, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Jan 2021.
    18. Glaubitz, Rick & Harnack-Eber, Astrid & Wetter, Miriam, 2022. "The gender gap in lifetime earnings: The role of parenthood," Discussion Papers 2022/3, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    19. Johannes Geyer & Salmai Qari & Hermann Buslei & Peter Haan, 2021. "DySiMo Dokumentation: Version 1.0," Data Documentation 101, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Bonin, Holger & Camarero Garcia, Sebastian & Lay, Max & Liu, Vivien & Neisser, Carina & Ody, Margard & Riedel, Lukas & Stichnoth, Holger & Ungerer, Martin & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2018. "Machbarkeitsstudie und Ableitung von Forschungsfragen zu Bedeutung, Inanspruchnahme und Verteilungswirkungen von gesellschaftlich notwendigen Dienstleistungen. Endbericht," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 184658.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic microsimulation; family policy; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:62:y:2016:i:4:p:650-671.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.