Forecasting measures of inflation for the Estonian economy
The aim of this paper is to forecast some of the most important measures of inflation of the Estonian economy by making use of linear and non-linear models. Results from comparing classes of optimal models are similar to those in the forecasting literature. In particular, there are gains from using more sophisticated methods such as factor analysis and time-varying parameters methods. Model discrimination is based on evaluation criteria which are computed by a real-time dynamic estimation procedure. Moreover, forecasts uncertainty is appropriately taken into account: Fan Charts can exhaustively describe the final output for what concerns out-of-sample forecasting.
|Date of creation:||10 Oct 2006|
|Date of revision:||12 Nov 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.bankofestonia.infoEmail:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, August.
- Massimiliano Marcellino, .
"Instability and non-linearity in the EMU,"
211, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1997.
"The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Carlo A. Favero & Francesca Neglia, 2005.
"Principal components at work: the empirical analysis of monetary policy with large data sets,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 603-620.
- Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Massimilano Marcellino & Francesca Neglia, . "Principal components at work: The empirical analysis of monetary policy with large datasets," Working Papers 223, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Jonas D. M. Fisher & Chin Te Liu & Ruilin Zhou, 2002. "When can we forecast inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-44.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rita S. Chu & Charles Steindel, 2000. "The unreliability of inflation indicators," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Apr).
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2002. "Can the Phillips curve help forecast inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct4.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994.
"Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
- Kazimi, Camilla & Brownstone, David, 1999. "Bootstrap confidence bands for shrinkage estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 99-127, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2006-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peeter Luikmel)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.