IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v19y1972i2p211-221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • J. Scott Armstrong

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Michael C. Grohman

    (IBM Corporation, Philadelphia)

Abstract

The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: H 1 Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H 2 The relative advantage of objective over subjective methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. H 3 Causal methods provide more accuracy than do naïve methods. H 4 The relative advantage of causal over naïve methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. Support for these hypotheses was then obtained from the literature and from a study of a single market. The study used three different models to make ex ante forecasts of the U.S. air travel market from 1963 through 1968. These hypotheses imply that econometric methods are more accurate for long-range market forecasting than are the major alternatives, expert judgment and extrapolation, and that the relative superiority of econometric methods increases as the time span of the forecast increases.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Scott Armstrong & Michael C. Grohman, 1972. "A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 211-221, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:19:y:1972:i:2:p:211-221
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.19.2.211
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.19.2.211
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.19.2.211?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. N/A, 1962. "Summary," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 20(1), pages 3-3, May.
    3. Victor Zarnowitz, 1967. "An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn67-1.
    4. N/A, 1962. "Summary," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 19(1), pages 3-3, February.
    5. Jacob A. Mincer, 1969. "Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc69-1.
    6. N/A, 1962. "Summary," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 21(1), pages 3-3, August.
    7. J. G. Cragg & Burton G. Malkiel, 1968. "The Consensus And Accuracy Of Some Predictions Of The Growth Of Corporate Earnings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 67-84, March.
    8. N/A, 1962. "Summary," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 22(1), pages 3-3, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tessier, Thomas H. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Decomposition of time-series by level and change," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1755-1758.
    2. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Designing and Using Experiential Exercises," General Economics and Teaching 0412022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Armstrong, J Scott, 1978. "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 549-564, October.
    4. Collan, Mikael, 2004. "Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments," MPRA Paper 4328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Davis, Donna F. & Mentzer, John T., 2007. "Organizational factors in sales forecasting management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 475-495.
    6. Kott, Alexander & Perconti, Philip, 2018. "Long-term forecasts of military technologies for a 20–30 year horizon: An empirical assessment of accuracy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 272-279.
    7. Schnaubelt, Matthias, 2019. "A comparison of machine learning model validation schemes for non-stationary time series data," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 11/2019, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    8. Tashman, Leonard J., 2000. "Out-of-sample tests of forecasting accuracy: an analysis and review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 437-450.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Väänänen, Ari & Anttila, Erkko & Turtiainen, Jussi & Varje, Pekka, 2012. "Formulation of work stress in 1960–2000: Analysis of scientific works from the perspective of historical sociology," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(5), pages 784-794.
    2. Paulo Júlio & Pedro M. Esperança & João C. Fonseca, 2011. "Evaluating the forecast quality of GDP components," GEE Papers 0041 Classification-C52, , Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Oct 2011.
    3. Ericsson, Neil R., 2016. "Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
    4. Pascal Bührig & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Revisionen der deutschen Industrieproduktion und die ifo Indikatoren," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(21), pages 27-31, November.
    5. Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2017. "An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(1), pages 1-31–38.
    6. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    7. Pericoli, Marcello & Taboga, Marco, 2012. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-65.
    8. Chang, Andrew C. & Hanson, Tyler J., 2016. "The accuracy of forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 23-43.
    9. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Isiklar, Gultekin, 2005. "On aggregation bias in fixed-event forecast efficiency tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 312-316, December.
    11. Christopher Hansman & Harrison Hong & Áureo de Paula & Vishal Singh, 2020. "A Sticky-Price View of Hoarding," NBER Working Papers 27051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics. Big Data versus big bank," Working Paper 2016/20, Norges Bank.
    13. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2016. "Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, with Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 507-532, April.
    14. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2019. "Assessing the uncertainty in central banks’ inflation outlooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1748-1769.
    15. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Patrick Rizzetto, 2018. "GDP by Industry in Real Time: Are Revisions Well Behaved?," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-40, Bank of Canada.
    17. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2011. "Understanding models' forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 158-172, September.
    18. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Isengildina Massa, Olga & Stewart, Shamar & Hassman, Colburn H., 2021. "RETURN DIVERGENCE IN COMMODITY ETFs: NATURE AND CAUSES," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313896, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:037 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Panagiotis Lazaris & Anastasios Petropoulos & Vasileios Siakoulis & Evangelos Stavroulakis & Nikolaos Vlachogiannakis, 2021. "Interest rate pass through in the deposit and loan products provided by Greek banks," Working Papers 287, Bank of Greece.
    22. Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2022. "The Social Value of Information: A Test of a Beauty and Nonbeauty Contest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2125-2148, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:19:y:1972:i:2:p:211-221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.