Long-term forecasts of military technologies for a 20–30 year horizon: An empirical assessment of accuracy
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.08.001
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Iain Hardie & Dominic Johnson & Dominic Tierney, 2011. "Psychological Aspects of War," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
- J. Scott Armstrong & Michael C. Grohman, 1972.
"A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 211-221, October.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & C., Michael, 1972. "A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting," MPRA Paper 81673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- JS Armstrong & Michael C. Grohman, 2004. "A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting," General Economics and Teaching 0412010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ruttan, Vernon W., 2006.
"Is War Necessary for Economic Growth?: Military Procurement and Technology Development,"
OUP Catalogue,
Oxford University Press, number 9780195188042.
- Ruttan, Vernon W., 2006. "Is War Necessary for Economic Growth? Military Procurement and Technology Development," Staff Papers 13534, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
- Robert Carbone & Allan Andersen & Yvan Corriveau & Paul Piat Corson, 1983. "Comparing for Different Time Series Methods the Value of Technical Expertise Individualized Analysis, and Judgmental Adjustment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 559-566, May.
- Halal, William E., 2013. "Forecasting the Technology Revolution: Results and learnings from the TechCast Project," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(8), pages 1635-1643.
- Coccia, Mario, 2018. "A Theory of the General Causes of Long Waves: War, General Purpose Technologies, and Economic Change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 287-295.
- Goldstein, Daniel G. & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2009. "Fast and frugal forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 760-772, October.
- Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
- Fye, Shannon R. & Charbonneau, Steven M. & Hay, Jason W. & Mullins, Carie A., 2013. "An examination of factors affecting accuracy in technology forecasts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(6), pages 1222-1231.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Silfverskiöld, Stefan & Andersson, Kent & Lundmark, Martin, 2021. "Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
- Gruetzemacher, Ross & Dorner, Florian E. & Bernaola-Alvarez, Niko & Giattino, Charlie & Manheim, David, 2021. "Forecasting AI progress: A research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Kajikawa, Yuya & Mejia, Cristian & Wu, Mengjia & Zhang, Yi, 2022. "Academic landscape of Technological Forecasting and Social Change through citation network and topic analyses," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
- Brent Moritz & Enno Siemsen & Mirko Kremer, 2014. "Judgmental Forecasting: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Speed," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 23(7), pages 1146-1160, July.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Coccia, Mario, 2015. "General sources of general purpose technologies in complex societies: Theory of global leadership-driven innovation, warfare and human development," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-226.
- Forbes, William & Hudson, Robert & Skerratt, Len & Soufian, Mona, 2015. "Which heuristics can aid financial-decision-making?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-210.
- Mario Coccia & Matteo Bellitto, 2018. "Critical analysis of human progress: Its negative and positive sides in the late-capitalism," Papers 1804.09550, arXiv.org.
- Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
- Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V. & Şimşek, Özgür & Buckmann, Marcus & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2022. "Transparent modeling of influenza incidence: Big data or a single data point from psychological theory?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 613-619.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Taleb, Nassim, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 716-733, October.
- Brighton, Henry & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2015. "The bias bias," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1772-1784.
- Coccia, Mario, 2019. "Why do nations produce science advances and new technology?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
- Tashman, Leonard J., 2000. "Out-of-sample tests of forecasting accuracy: an analysis and review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 437-450.
- Berg, Joyce E. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2019. "Longshots, overconfidence and efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 271-287.
- Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003.
"Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 82, European Central Bank.
- Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements & Department of Economics & University of Warwick, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Madden, Gary & Tan, Joachim, 2007.
"Forecasting telecommunications data with linear models,"
Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 31-44, February.
- Madden, Gary G & Tan, Joachim, 2007. "Forecasting telecommunications data with linear models," MPRA Paper 14739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tsionas, Mike G., 2021. "Bayesian forecasting with the structural damped trend model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Siemroth, Christoph, 2014.
"Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting,"
Working Papers
14-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
- Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-29, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvao, Ana, 2010.
"Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions,"
Economic Research Papers
270771, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2010. "Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 953, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015.
"Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative,"
Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2014. "Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative," MPRA Paper 53579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
More about this item
Keywords
Technology forecast; Prediction accuracy; Military technology; Long-range forecast; Forecast assessment;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:137:y:2018:i:c:p:272-279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.