Long term Projections of the World Economy – A Review
Economic growth projections are fundamental to long term investment planning by businesses and government. There is an extensive and well developed literature concerned with methodologies for projecting economic growth over short time horizons, but over long horizons, where the goal is to quantify the implications of a particular scenario, the literature is limited. This paper provides a review of publicly available projections of GDP per capita over long time horizons and compares them with projections from a multi-sector model of the world economy called the G-Cubed model. Although there appears to be some general agreement over methodology across the reviewed sources, the projections vary considerably, particularly for developing regions over long time horizons, highlighting the importance and influence of alternative model methodology and assumptions. The comparison with the G-Cubed model builds on previous research that has highlighted the importance of a detailed disaggregated approach to projecting output and productivity that accounts for the dynamic interactions between sectors and across economies. Long term economic issues are becoming increasingly important and economic growth projections are fundamental to both the design and the assessment of long term economic policy alternatives. In addition, our ability to analyse the impact of long term policy alternatives is linked to our ability to model and understand the impact of global economic shocks. Models need to be clear in their methodological design and assumptions, but they also need to be sufficiently complex to account for the important sectoral relationships and international linkages that drive economic growth.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.