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Investiţiile Străine Directe Şi Criza Economică Recentă

Author

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  • Mihaela SIMIONESCU

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The analysis of foreign direct investment in crisis period is necessary in order to state the prerequisites for economic recovery. A movering average model of order 1 was proposed for foreign direct investment (FDI) stock inwards growth in Romania, which is in accordance with the expectations when many shocks appear in crisis period. However, an autoregressive behaviour was not discovered. There is a bilateral causality between FDI growth and real GDP in second difference for a level of significance of 5%. According to the Bayesian regression model, in the period after the crisis beginning, the real GDP growth in Romania from an year to another generated an increase in FDI while the decrease in real GDP determined a lower FDI. This result confirmed the previous conclusions from literature that foreign investors in Romania follow the economic growth of this coutry.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2016. "Investiţiile Străine Directe Şi Criza Economică Recentă," Institute for Economic Forecasting Conference Proceedings 161106, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:wpconf:161106
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/RePEc/WorkingPapers/wpconf161106.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign direct investment; moving average; Granger causaity; Bayesian model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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