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Estimating components of ICT expenditure: a model-based approach with applicability to short time-series


  • Cooper, Russel
  • Madden, Gary G


This paper develops a microeconomic model-based approach to forecast national information and communications technology expenditure that is helpful when only very short time-series are available. The model specification incorporates parameters for network effects and national e-readiness. Finally, the model allows for observed non-homotheticity and ‘noise’ found in sample data, with the latter attributed to country-specific influences.

Suggested Citation

  • Cooper, Russel & Madden, Gary G, 2008. "Estimating components of ICT expenditure: a model-based approach with applicability to short time-series," MPRA Paper 13007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13007

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sandra E. Black & Lisa M. Lynch, 2001. "How To Compete: The Impact Of Workplace Practices And Information Technology On Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 434-445, August.
    2. Shy,Oz, 2001. "The Economics of Network Industries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521805001, March.
    3. Islam, Towhidul & Fiebig, Denzil G. & Meade, Nigel, 2002. "Modelling multinational telecommunications demand with limited data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-624.
    4. Makridakis, Spyros, 1996. "Forecasting: its role and value for planning and strategy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 513-537, December.
    5. Cooper, Russel J & McLaren, Keith R, 1996. "A System of Demand Equations Satisfying Effectively Global Regularity Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 359-364, May.
    6. Russel J. Cooper & Keith R. McLaren, 1992. "An Empirically Oriented Demand System with Improved Regularity Properties," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 652-668, August.
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    More about this item


    ICT forecasts; short time-series; microeconomic modeling;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • L96 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Telecommunications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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