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Bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis: an application to the value of travel time savings

  • Moral-Benito, Enrique

In the evaluation of transportation infrastructure projects, some non-tradable goods such as time are usually key determinants of the result. However, obtaining monetary values for these goods is not always easy. This paper introduces a novel approach based on the combination of bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis. This methodology will allow to obtain predictive distributions of the monetary values for this type of goods. Therefore, uncertainty is formally considered in the analysis. Moreover, the proposed method is easy to apply and inexpensive both in terms of time and money. Finally, an application to the value of travel time savings is also presented.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12861/1/MPRA_paper_12861.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12861.

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Date of creation: 31 Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12861
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  1. Campos, Javier & de Rus, Gines & Barron, Ignacio, 2007. "A review of HSR experiences around the world," MPRA Paper 12397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. " The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
  3. L. Randall Wray & Stephanie Bell, 2004. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Credit and State Theories of Money, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  6. repec:reg:rpubli:282 is not listed on IDEAS
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