IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rej/journl/v14y2011i42p25-46.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty of USA GDP Forecasts Determined by The Variables Aggregation

Author

Listed:
  • Mihaela Bratu

    () (Academy of Economic Studies, Faculty of Cybernetics, Statistics and Economic Informatics, Bucharest)

Abstract

The aggregation of the variables that compose an indicator, as GDP, which should be forecasted, is not mentioned explicitly in literature as a source of forecasts uncertainty. In this study based on data on U.S. GDP and its components in 1995-2010, we found that GDP one-step-ahead forecasts made by aggregating the components with variable weights, modeled using ARMA procedure, have a higher accuracy than those with constant weights or the direct forecasts. Excepting the GDP forecasts obtained directly from the model, the one-step-ahead forecasts resulted form the GDP components’ forecasts aggregation are better than those made on an horizon of 3 years . The evaluation of this source of uncertainty should be considered for macroeconomic aggregates in order to choose the most accurate forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Bratu, 2011. "Uncertainty of USA GDP Forecasts Determined by The Variables Aggregation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(42), pages 25-46, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:14:y:2011:i:42:p:25-46
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rejournal.eu/sites/rejournal.versatech.ro/files/articole/2011-11-30/2054/bratu.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    source of uncertainty; forecasts; accuracy; disaggregation over variables; strategy of prediction; DM test;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:14:y:2011:i:42:p:25-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Radu Lupu). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frasero.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.