The Uncertainty of USA GDP Forecasts Determined by the Variables Aggregation
The aggregation of the variables that compose an indicator, as GDP, which should be forecasted, is not mentioned explicitly in literature as a source of forecasts uncertainty. In this study based on data on U.S. GDP and its components in 1995-2010, we found that GDP one-step-ahead forecasts made by aggregating the components with variable weights, modeled using ARMA procedure, have a higher accuracy than those with constant weights or the direct forecasts. Excepting the GDP forecasts obtained directly from the model, the onestep-ahead forecasts resulted from the GDP components’ forecasts aggregation are better than those made on an horizon of 3 years . The evaluation of this source of uncertainty should be considered for macroeconomic aggregates in order to choose the most accurate forecast.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dug:journl:y:2011:i:30:p:109-122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Florian Nuta)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.