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Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

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  • Tobías, Aureli

    ()

  • Saez, Marc

    ()

Abstract

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants in Madrid for the period 1995-1998, of how these methods are employed.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobías, Aureli & Saez, Marc, 2004. "Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health," Working Papers of the Department of Economics, University of Girona 11, Department of Economics, University of Girona.
  • Handle: RePEc:udg:wpeudg:011
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    File URL: http://www3.udg.edu/fcee/economia/n11.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-series; Poisson; GLM; GAM; autocorrelation; overdispersion; air pollution;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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