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Generalised density forecast combinations

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Fawcett

    (Bank of England)

  • George Kapetanios

    (Queen Mary University of London)

  • James Mitchell

    (WBS)

  • Simon Price

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Density forecast combinations are becoming increasingly popular as a means of improving forecast ‘accuracy’, as measured by a scoring rule. In this paper we generalise this literature by letting the combination weights follow more general schemes. Sieve estimation is used to optimise the score of the generalised density combination where the combination weights depend on the variable one is trying to forecast. Specific attention is paid to the use of piecewise linear weight functions that let the weights vary by region of the density. We analyse these schemes theoretically, in Monte Carlo experiments and in an empirical study. Our results show that the generalised combinations outperform their linear counterparts.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Fawcett & George Kapetanios & James Mitchell & Simon Price, 2014. "Generalised density forecast combinations," Bank of England working papers 492, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0492
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Density Forecasting; Model Combination; Scoring Rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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