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Generalised density forecast combinations

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Fawcett, Nicholas

    ()

    (Bank of England)

  • Kapetanios, George

    ()

    (Queen Mary University of London)

  • Mitchell, James

    ()

    (WBS)

  • Price, Simon

    ()

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Density forecast combinations are becoming increasingly popular as a means of improving forecast ‘accuracy’, as measured by a scoring rule. In this paper we generalise this literature by letting the combination weights follow more general schemes. Sieve estimation is used to optimise the score of the generalised density combination where the combination weights depend on the variable one is trying to forecast. Specific attention is paid to the use of piecewise linear weight functions that let the weights vary by region of the density. We analyse these schemes theoretically, in Monte Carlo experiments and in an empirical study. Our results show that the generalised combinations outperform their linear counterparts.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 492.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 28 Mar 2014
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0492
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Keywords: Density Forecasting; Model Combination; Scoring Rules;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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  1. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
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  25. repec:hal:journl:peer-00834423 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:

  1. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2015. "Dynamic predictive density combinations for large data sets in economics and finance," Working Paper 2015/12, Norges Bank.
  2. Roberto Casarin, 2014. "A Note on Tractable State-Space Model for Symmetric Positive-Definite Matrices," Working Papers 2014:23, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  3. Roberto Casarin & Fabrizio Leisen & German Molina & Enrique ter Horst, 2014. "A Bayesian Beta Markov Random Field Calibration of the Term Structure of Implied Risk Neutral Densities," Papers 1409.1956, arXiv.org.
  4. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers 80, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  5. Del Negro, Marco & Hasegawa, Raiden B. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2016. "Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 391-405.
  6. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:17:d:65855 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Pauwels, Laurent L. & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2016. "A note on the estimation of optimal weights for density forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 391-397.
  8. Roberto Casarin & Federico Bassetti & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions," Working Papers 2015:04, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  9. Roberto Casarin & Giulia Mantoan & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Bayesian Calibration of Generalized Pools of Predictive Distributions," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, March.
  10. Fabio Busetti, 2014. "Quantile aggregation of density forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 979, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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