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Integrated Model of Computable General Equilibrium and Social Cost Benefit Analysis of an Indian Oil Refinery: Future Projections and Macroeconomic Effects

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  • Sumana Chaudhuri
  • Shovan Ray
  • Ganesh-Kumar

Abstract

Cost benefit analysis (CBA) has long been used as a useful tool to appraise and evaluate the value of a range of investment projects to a society. Certain aspects of this method such as the appropriate discount rate is an important concern, because the choice of discount rates deeply affect the valuations of future income streams. Other aspects concerning financial flows and appropriate ‘shadow prices’ have also received considerable attention. However, when a megaproject with the character of a ‘universal intermediate’ is considered, its multiplier effects may be wide-ranging and permeate several economic and social layers and may be captured only in the aggregates. This study examines the costs and benefits of Vadinar refinery in Gujarat with a focus on this welfare dimension on society for the project. The framework explores a methodological breakthrough in CBA studies. In constituting the macroeconomic effects of expansion of the mega oil refinery, the wider economic impact (WEI) is estimated using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and incorporated into the CBA. This assimilation of CBA with macroeconomic externality obtained from the CGE model framework is perhaps only one of its kind in economic analysis of major infrastructure projects of any country. CBA when combined with CGE as an analytical tool can be gainfully employed to appraise or evaluate large scale projects like oil refineries. JEL Classification: B41, C51, C52, C53, C54, C55, D50, D58, D60, D61, D62, H23, H43, L71, O22, Q43

Suggested Citation

  • Sumana Chaudhuri & Shovan Ray & Ganesh-Kumar, 2018. "Integrated Model of Computable General Equilibrium and Social Cost Benefit Analysis of an Indian Oil Refinery: Future Projections and Macroeconomic Effects," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 10(1-2), pages 96-125, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jouinf:v:10:y:2018:i:1-2:p:96-125
    DOI: 10.1177/0974930618813749
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    as
    1. Sumana Chaudhuri & Shovan Ray & Ganesh-Kumar, 2018. "Integrated Model of Computable General Equilibrium and Social Cost Benefit Analysis of an Indian Oil Refinery: Future Projections and Macroeconomic Effects," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 10(1-2), pages 96-125, June.
    2. Sumana Chaudhuri & Shovan Ray, 2016. "Social and economic impact analysis of Vadinar refinery of Essar oil: The Case of a mega refinery," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2016-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Banister, David & Thurstain-Goodwin, Mark, 2011. "Quantification of the non-transport benefits resulting from rail investment," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 212-223.
    4. Anthony J. Venables, 2007. "Evaluating Urban Transport Improvements: Cost-Benefit Analysis in the Presence of Agglomeration and Income Taxation," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 41(2), pages 173-188, May.
    5. Robson, Edward N. & Wijayaratna, Kasun P. & Dixit, Vinayak V., 2018. "A review of computable general equilibrium models for transport and their applications in appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 31-53.
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    1. Sumana Chaudhuri & Shovan Ray & Ganesh-Kumar, 2018. "Integrated Model of Computable General Equilibrium and Social Cost Benefit Analysis of an Indian Oil Refinery: Future Projections and Macroeconomic Effects," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 10(1-2), pages 96-125, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cost benefit analysis; wider economic impact; computable general equilibrium (CGE) model; oil refinery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

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