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China, India and the future of the global economy


  • Kwasnicki, Witold


In the first part of the paper an overview of the long-term global economic growth forecasts is presented (e.g., forecasts of Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a report by HSBC, CitiGroup report, reports of PricewaterhouseCoopers, or Goldman Sachs reports). In this context, the diversified views and opinions on future economic development of China and India (currently considered as the fastest-growing major economies in the world) are presented. In the second part of the article, an extrapolative forecast of global GDP and an estimation of the economies of China and India in global production by 2050 based on the so-called evolutionary model of competition is outlined. The evolutionary model of competition enables to estimate the competitiveness of national economies, therefore in the second part of the paper we presents also the results of estimation of the competitiveness of the economies of India and China after World War II. One aim of that research is to compare the competitiveness of China and India with the leaders of economic development in the twentieth century, namely the United States, Great Britain, Germany, Japan and the European Union. The summary of these considerations are estimations the shares of GDP of China and India in the global product based on global scenarios of the competitiveness changes of these economies over the next 40 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Kwasnicki, Witold, 2011. "China, India and the future of the global economy," MPRA Paper 32558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32558

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kwasnicki, Witold & Kwasnicka, Halina, 1995. "Long-term diffusion factors of technological development - an evolutionary model and case study," MPRA Paper 22262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sandra Poncet, 2006. "The Long Term Growth Prospects of the World Economy: Horizon 2050," Working Papers 2006-16, CEPII research center.
    3. ,, 2004. "African Development Report 2004: Africa in the World Economy Africa in the Global Trading System Economic and Social Statistics on Africa," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199271795.
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    More about this item


    future studies; forecasting; globalization; economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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