IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v136y2015icp108-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An alternative reference scenario for global CO2 emissions from fuel consumption: An ARFIMA approach

Author

Listed:
  • Belbute, José M.
  • Pereira, Alfredo M.

Abstract

In this note, we establish an alternative reference scenario based on an ARFIMA model estimated using global CO2 emissions from 1750 to 2013. These new reference forecasts are free from additional assumptions on demographic and economic variables, often used in most reference forecasts. Instead, we only rely on the properties of the underlying stochastic process for global CO2 emissions that are, in this sense, closer to fundamentals. Our reference forecasts are clearly below the levels proposed by other reference scenarios available in the literature. This is important, as it suggests that the ongoing policy goals are actually easier to reach than what is implied by the standard reference scenarios. Having lower and more realistic reference emissions projections gives a truer assessment of the policy efforts that are needed, and highlights the lower costs involved in mitigation efforts, thereby maximizing the likelihood of more widespread environmental policy efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Belbute, José M. & Pereira, Alfredo M., 2015. "An alternative reference scenario for global CO2 emissions from fuel consumption: An ARFIMA approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 108-111.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:136:y:2015:i:c:p:108-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.09.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176515003511
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2012. "Long memory and disaggregated energy consumption: Evidence from fossils, coal and electricity retail in the U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1082-1087.
    2. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
    3. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Loomis, David & Payne, James E., 2010. "Does energy consumption by the US electric power sector exhibit long memory behavior?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7512-7518, November.
    4. Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Chen, Yi-Chun, 2013. "A study on the volatility spillovers, long memory effects and interactions between carbon and energy markets: The impacts of extreme weather," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 840-855.
    5. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Long memory in energy futures prices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 146-155.
    6. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2011. "Integration properties of disaggregated solar, geothermal and biomass energy consumption in the U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5474-5479, September.
    7. Marco Barassi & Matthew Cole & Robert Elliott, 2011. "The Stochastic Convergence of CO 2 Emissions: A Long Memory Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 367-385, July.
    8. Pestana Barros, Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2012. "Evidence of long memory behavior in U.S. renewable energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 822-826.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:rensus:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:990-1016 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. José M. Belbute & Alfredo Marvão Pereira, 2016. "Updated Reference Forecasts for Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Consumption," Working Papers 170, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    3. José Belbute & Alberto Marvão Pereira, 2015. "Do Global CO2 Emissions from Fuel Consumption Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2015_14, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Reference scenario; CO2 emissions; Fuel; Long memory; ARFIMA;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:136:y:2015:i:c:p:108-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.