Forecasting the Prices and Rents for Flats in Large German Cities
In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the monthly growth rates of the prices and rents for flats in 26 largest German cities. Given the small time dimension, the forecasts are done in a panel-data format. In addition, we use panel models that account for spatial dependence between the growth rates of housing prices and rents. Using a quasi out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps to substantially improve the forecast performance compared to the benchmark models estimated for each of the cities separately. In addition, a true out-of-sample forecasting of the growth rates of flats' prices and rents for the next six months is done. It shows that in most cities both prices and rents for flats are going to increase. In some cities, the average monthly growth rate even exceeds 1%, which is a very strong increase compared to the overall price level increase of about 2% per year.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
- repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
- Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2007.
"A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
664, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2008. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 195-207.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & James M. Griffin & Alain Pirotte, 2003.
"Homogeneous, heterogeneous or shrinkage estimators? Some empirical evidence from French regional gasoline consumption,"
Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 795-811, November.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & James M. Griffin & Alain Pirotte, 2002. "Homogeneous, heterogeneous or shrinkage estimators? Some empirical evidence from French regional gasoline consumption," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 A6-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006.
"Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: The Case of Liquor,"
Center for Policy Research Working Papers
84, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Badi Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: the Case of Liquor," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 175-185.
- Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53.
- repec:zbw:rwirep:0294 is not listed on IDEAS
- Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006.
"On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?,"
Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
- Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?," IZA Discussion Papers 1710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Badi H. Baltagi & James M. Griffin & Weiwen Xiong, 2000. "To Pool Or Not To Pool: Homogeneous Versus Hetergeneous Estimations Applied to Cigarette Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 117-126, February.
- Girardin, Eric & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2010. "How helpful are spatial effects in forecasting the growth of Chinese provinces?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1997. "Pooled estimators vs. their heterogeneous counterparts in the context of dynamic demand for gasoline," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 303-327, April.
- M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Andreas Mense, 2012. "Internet-Based Hedonic Indices of Rents and Prices for Flats: Example of Berlin," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1191, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & Alain Pirotte, 2004. "Tobin q: Forecast performance for hierarchical Bayes, shrinkage, heterogeneous and homogeneous panel data estimators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 107-113, January.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2002. "Comparison of forecast performance for homogeneous, heterogeneous and shrinkage estimators: Some empirical evidence from US electricity and natural-gas consumption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 375-382, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.