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The impact of oil price dynamics on the macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Melnikov, Roman

    () (Russian Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation)

Abstract

The paper assesses the dependence of basic macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy on the oil price dynamics on the world market. Hypotheses about the sensitivity of macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy to oil price fluctuations are formulated, and a simultaneous equations system is specified and estimated in order to test these hypotheses. The scenarios of reaction of the Russian economy to exogenous shocks related to sharp oil price cuts are investigated, and policy recommendations aimed to minimize the negative impact of these shocks are formulated

Suggested Citation

  • Melnikov, Roman, 2010. "The impact of oil price dynamics on the macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 17(1), pages 20-29.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0043
    as

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    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2010_1_20-29.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jouko Rautava, 2002. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia‘s economy," Macroeconomics 0209004, EconWPA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price dynamics; macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy; simultaneous equations systems;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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