IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Russia from Bust to Boom: Oil, Politics or the Ruble?

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • B. MERLEVEDE

    ()

  • K. SCHOORS

    ()

  • B. VAN AARLE

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a small macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. The model is tailored to analyze the impact of the oil price, the exchange rate, private sector confidence and fiscal policy on economic performance. The model does very well in explaining Russia’s recent economic history in the period 1995-2004. Simulations suggest that the Russian economy is vulnerable to downward oil price shocks. We substantiate two mechanisms that mitigate the economic effects of oil price shocks, namely the stabilisation brought by the Oil Stabilisation Fund and the Dutch disease effect. The negative effect of a shock in private sector confidence on real GDP is comparable to the effect of an oil price shock, although the transmission of both shocks runs along different channels. The fiscal policies of the Putin administration temper economic fluctuations caused by oil price shocks, but it remains to be seen whether these policies will be continued.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_07_461.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 07/461.

as
in new window

Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:07/461
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Hoveniersberg 4, B-9000 Gent

Phone: ++ 32 (0) 9 264 34 61
Fax: ++ 32 (0) 9 264 35 92
Web page: http://www.ugent.be/eb

More information through EDIRC

Keywords: Russia; Macroeconomic Modeling; Macroeconomic stabilization;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
  • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
  • E16 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Social Accounting Matrix
  • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lucio, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 484-499, September.
  2. Hall, Stephen & Mizon, Grayham E. & Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modelling economies in transition: an introduction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 339-357, August.
  3. Jouko Rautava, 2002. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia‘s economy," Macroeconomics 0209004, EconWPA.
  4. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:

  1. Katerina Kalcheva & Nienke Oomes, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch Disease; Does Russia Have the Symptoms?," IMF Working Papers 07/102, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Aaron Mehrotra & Jouko Rautava, 2008. "Do sentiment indicators help to assess and predict actual developments of the Chinese economy?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 225-239.
  3. Haaparanta, Pertti & Pirttila, Jukka, 2007. "Reforms and confidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 534-550, September.
  4. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2014. "Spillover Effects in the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus," EcoMod2014 7160, EcoMod.
  5. Oomes, Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease : Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:07/461. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nathalie Verhaeghe)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.