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Russia from Bust to Boom: Oil, Politics or the Ruble?

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Merlevede
  • Koen Schoors
  • Bas van Aarle

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a small macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. The model is tailored to analyze the impact of the oil price, the exchange rate, and political stability on economic performance. The model does very well in explaining Russia???s economic history in the period 1995-2002. We then use the model to simulate two sets of scenarios, one with various oil price scenarios and one with various adverse shocks. The simulations suggest that the Russian economy is still very vulnerable to oil price swings, and that these swings have asymmetric effects. Indeed the cost of a downward swing of oil prices seems to be larger than the benefit of an upward swing. We also find that the aggregate effects of an oil price collapse are comparable to these of renewed political instability. Although their propagation mechanism is quite different, both adverse shocks do have a similar effect on real GDP. A real exchange rate appreciation on the other hand has relatively mild effects on real GDP. All in all, it is suggested that Russia should reduce its vulnerability to adverse oil price shocks and maintain political stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Merlevede & Koen Schoors & Bas van Aarle, 2004. "Russia from Bust to Boom: Oil, Politics or the Ruble?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-722, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2004-722
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    File URL: http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40108/3/wp722.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank, 2002. "Transition, The First Ten Years : Analysis and Lessons for Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14042, December.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lucio, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 484-499, September.
    4. Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
    5. Jouko Rautava, 2002. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia‘s economy," Macroeconomics 0209004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    7. Taylor, John B. (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226791258, December.
    8. William Tompson, 2002. "Putin's Challenge: The Politics of Structural Reform in Russia," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 933-957.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2007_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ms. Katerina Kalcheva & Nienke Oomes, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch Disease: Does Russia Have the Symptoms?," IMF Working Papers 2007/102, International Monetary Fund.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2007_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Aaron Mehrotra & Jouko Rautava, 2008. "Do sentiment indicators help to assess and predict actual developments of the Chinese economy?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 225-239.
    5. Haaparanta, Pertti & Pirttila, Jukka, 2007. "Reforms and confidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 534-550, September.
    6. Oomes, Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease: Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2014. "Spillover Effects in the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus," EcoMod2014 7160, EcoMod.
    8. Oomes, Nienke & Kalcheva, Katerina, 2007. "Diagnosing Dutch disease : Does Russia have the symptoms?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia; Macroeconomic Modeling; Macroeconomic stabilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E16 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Social Accounting Matrix
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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