Oil dependency of the Russian economy: an econometric analysis
A macro econometric model of the Russian economy is developed, containing 13 estimated equations - covering major national account variables, government expenditures and revenues, interest rates, prices and the labour market. The model is tailored to analyze effects of changes in the oil price and economic policy variables. The model has good statistical properties and tracks history well over the estimation period, which runs from 1995Q1 to 2008Q1. Model simulations indicate that the Russian economy is vulnerable to large fluctuations in the oil price, but we also find evidence of significant economic growth capabilities in the absence of oil price growth.
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| Date of creation: | May 2010 |
| Handle: | RePEc:ssb:dispap:617 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: P.O.Box 8131 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway Phone: (+47) 21 09 00 00 Fax: +47 - 62 88 55 95 Web page: http://www.ssb.no/en/ Email: More information through EDIRC
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Geranda Notten & Denis de Crombrugghe, 2012. "Consumption smoothing in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 20(3), pages 481-519, 07.
- Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "The impact on Russia of WTO accession and the Doha agenda : the importance of liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in services for growth and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3725, The World Bank.
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- Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
- International Monetary Fund, 2003. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country; The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 03/93, International Monetary Fund.
- Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2004. "EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 307-323, December.
- Sulamaa, Pekka & Widgrén, Mika, 2004. "EU Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2004. "EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration," Discussion Papers 356, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
- van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Suni, Paavo, 2007. "Oil Prices and the Russian Economy. Some Simulation Studies with NiGEM," Discussion Papers 1088, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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