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Oil dependency of the Russian economy: an econometric analysis




A macro econometric model of the Russian economy is developed, containing 13 estimated equations - covering major national account variables, government expenditures and revenues, interest rates, prices and the labour market. The model is tailored to analyze effects of changes in the oil price and economic policy variables. The model has good statistical properties and tracks history well over the estimation period, which runs from 1995Q1 to 2008Q1. Model simulations indicate that the Russian economy is vulnerable to large fluctuations in the oil price, but we also find evidence of significant economic growth capabilities in the absence of oil price growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Benedictow & Daniel Fjærtoft & Ole Løfsnæs, 2010. "Oil dependency of the Russian economy: an econometric analysis," Discussion Papers 617, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:617

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Geranda Notten & Denis de Crombrugghe, 2012. "Consumption smoothing in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 20(3), pages 481-519, July.
    2. Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country; The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 03/93, International Monetary Fund.
    4. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
    5. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "The impact on Russia of WTO accession and the Doha agenda : the importance of liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in services for growth and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3725, The World Bank.
    6. Robert S. Pindyck, 1999. "The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
    7. Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2004. "EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 307-323, December.
    8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    9. Suni, Paavo, 2007. "Oil Prices and the Russian Economy. Some Simulation Studies with NiGEM," Discussion Papers 1088, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
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    More about this item


    Russia; macro econometric model; oil price dependency; fiscal and monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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