Is it Possible to Predict the CNB Repo Rate on the Basis of the Backward-Looking Monetary Rule?
The aim of our paper is to formulate and empirically verify the simple backward looking econometric model of the monetary rule, which would be able to describe the development of CNB repo rate, namely only on the basis of statistically measured and in the given time available information. We focus on the period after 1998, when the CNB´s inflation targeting policy is implemented and the repo rate (14 days) plays the role of the monetary policy rate. In the paper we discuss some methodological problems associated with the "ex post" empirical verification of the central bank monetary rule. We construct an empirical model of the monetary rule, justify the choice and the inclusion of explanatory variables, we analyze the statistical properties of time series and verify the alternative forms of econometric models. Our analysis showed that the development of CNB repo rate in the reporting period can be explained by the past and present evolution of three explanatory variables: the yearly inflation rate, the exchange rate and the ECB repo rate. The annualized inflation rate proved to be statistically insignificant in the model. We find interesting that the statistical quality of the estimated model was further increased after a six-month delay of the yearly inflation rate. The obtained results indicate that in determining the CNB repo rate the expected future level of the yearly inflation rate does not play important role and the last yearly inflation rate is more important than its present level.
Volume (Year): 2012 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (02) 24 09 51 11
Fax: (02) 24 22 06 57
Web page: http://www.vse.cz/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Redakce Politické ekonomie, Vysoká škola ekonomická, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3|
Web: http://www.vse.cz/polek/ Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990.
"An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-66, July.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2005:i:7:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
- John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998.
"Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule,"
646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Papers 646, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," CEPR Discussion Papers 1998, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000.
"Open-economy inflation targeting,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jaromir Benes & Tibor Hledik & Michael Kumhof & David Vavra, 2005. "An Economy in Transition and DSGE: What the Czech National Bankâ€™s New Projection Model Needs," Working Papers 2005/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:3:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
- Martin Mandel & Vladimír Kosmata, 2000. "The czech embarrassment of inflation targeting in transition," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2000(3).
- Josef Arlt & Milan Bašta, 2010. "The Problem of the Yearly Inflation Rate and Its Implications for the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(2), pages 99-117.
- Frömmel, Michael & Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern Europe," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-341, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Ramon Maria-Dolores, 2005. "Monetary Policy Rules In Accession Countries to EU: Is the Taylor rule a pattern?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(7), pages 1-16.
- Juan Paez-Farrell, 2007. "Understanding monetary policy in Central European countries using Taylor-type rules: the case of the Visegrad four," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(3), pages 1-11.
- Jaromír Beneš & Jaromír Hurník & David Vávra, 2008. "Exchange Rate Management and Inflation Targeting: Modeling the Exchange Rate in Reduced-Form New Keynesian Models," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(03-04), pages 166-194, May.
- Yash P. Mehra, 1999. "A forward-looking monetary policy reaction function," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 33-54.
- M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2004. "Monetary policy rules in emerging market economies: issues and evidence," BIS Working Papers 149, Bank for International Settlements.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2012:y:2012:i:4:id:858:p:484-504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vaclav Subrta)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.