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Grandes datos, Google y desempleo/Big Data, Google and Unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Raymundo M. Campos Vázquez

    (El Colegio de México, A.C.)

  • Sergio E. López-Araiza B.

    (El Colegio de México, A.C.)

Abstract

We use Google Trends data for employment opportunities related reply in order to forecast the unemployment rate in Mexico. We begin by discussing the literature related to big data and nowcasting in which user generated data is used to forecast unemployment. Afterwards, we explain the basics of several machine learning algorithms. Finally, we implement such algorithms in order to find the best model to predict unemployment using both Google Trends queries and unemployment lags. From a public policy perspective, we believe that both user generated data and new statistical methods may provide great tools for the design of policy interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymundo M. Campos Vázquez & Sergio E. López-Araiza B., 2020. "Grandes datos, Google y desempleo/Big Data, Google and Unemployment," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 35(1), pages 125-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:35:y:2020:i:1:p:125-151
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    File URL: https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/399/483
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mexico; unemployment; Google; big data; machine learning; prediction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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