IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bay/rdwiwi/9397.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bank lending effect on German commercial property prices

Author

Listed:
  • Gruber, Johannes
  • Lee, Gabriel

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of bank lending on German commercial property prices. The theory on the role of financial intermediaries in business cycle activity states that lending activity is characterized by asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders. As a consequence, interest rates may not move to clear lending markets (as in models with moral hazard and adverse selection elements) or firms' net worth may play a critical role as collateral in influencing lending activity (as in models with agency costs). While the theory is concrete, the debate on the empirical support for these models continues. In this paper, our goal is to continue in exploring this debate by estimating a recursive VAR model using German (both aggregate and regional level) commercial property data from 1975 to 2004. Unlike other previous empirical results in commercial real estate literature, our main results show a weak negative correlation between growth in property prices and growth in credit, especially at the regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Gruber, Johannes & Lee, Gabriel, 2008. "Bank lending effect on German commercial property prices," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 428, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:9397
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://epub.uni-regensburg.de/9397/1/german_bank_lending_07_08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    2. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2011. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, February.
    3. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    5. Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 222003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Berlemann & Julia Freese, 2013. "Monetary policy and real estate prices: a disaggregated analysis for Switzerland," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 469-490, December.
    2. Bienert, Sven & Sebastian, Steffen P. & Just, Tobias, . "Niedrigzinsumfeld und die Auswirkungen auf die Immobilienwirtschaft," Beiträge zur Immobilienwirtschaft, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics, number 8, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Heeho Kim & SaeWoon Park & Sun Hye Lee, 2012. "House Price and Bank Lending in a Premium Submarket in Korea," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 15(1), pages 1-42.
    4. Yi Jin & Charles K.Y. Leung & Zhixiong Zeng, 2012. "Real Estate, the External Finance Premium and Business Investment: A Quantitative Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 167-195, March.
    5. Man Cho, 2014. "Housing price and mortgage credit cycles: tales of two countries," Chapters, in: Susan Wachter & Man Cho & Moon Joong Tcha (ed.), The Global Financial Crisis and Housing, chapter 5, pages 82-111, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2016. "Financial cycles and co-movements between the real economy, finance and asset price dynamics in large-scale crises," FinMaP-Working Papers 61, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    7. Denis Gorea & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Tamon Takamura, 2016. "Leaning Within a Flexible Inflation-Targeting Framework: Review of Costs and Benefits," Discussion Papers 16-17, Bank of Canada.
    8. Paul Welfens, 2014. "Issues of modern macroeconomics: new post-crisis perspectives on the world economy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 481-527, December.
    9. Kevin D. Salyer & Gabriel S. Lee & Victor Dorofeenko, 2010. "Risk Shocks and Housing Markets," 2010 Meeting Papers 451, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Ravn, Søren Hove, 2014. "Asymmetric monetary policy towards the stock market: A DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 24-41.
    11. Nutahara, Kengo, 2015. "Do credit market imperfections justify a central bank׳s response to asset price fluctuations?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 81-94.
    12. Urban, Jörg, 2020. "Credit cycles revisited," Working Paper Series in Economics 146, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    13. Shirai, Daichi, 2016. "Persistence and Amplification of Financial Frictions," MPRA Paper 72187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kühl, Michael, 2017. "Bank capital, the state contingency of banks’ assets and its role for the transmission of shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 260-284.
    15. Martino, Ricci & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2017. "Subprime Mortgages and Banking in a DSGE Model," Working Papers 366, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 22 Jun 2017.
    16. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Clark, Gregory & Cummins, Neil, 2010. "Malthus to Modernity: England’s First Fertility Transition, 1760-1800," MPRA Paper 25465, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
    19. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2016. "Optimal capital controls and real exchange rate policies: A pecuniary externality perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 147-165.
    20. Ester Faia, 2011. "Macroeconomic and welfare implications of financial globalization," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 14, pages 119-144, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kreditgewährung ; Gewerbeimmobilien ; Vektor-autoregressives Modell;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:9397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gernot Deinzer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wfregde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.