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Impact of Physical Climate Risks on Antimicrobial Resistance

Author

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  • Roshen Fernando

Abstract

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and climate change are interrelated complex challenges to humanity. We investigate the role of physical climate risks in the resistance growth of seven pathogens against twelve antimicrobials in 30 countries from 2000 to 2020. Our empirical assessment considers both chronic (gradual changes in temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) and extreme climate risks (representing extreme precipitation events, droughts, heatwaves, coldwaves, and storms). We observe heterogeneous responses of different antimicrobial drug-pathogen combinations to physical climate risks. We observe that the physical climate risks could affect resistance growth more than antimicrobial consumption growth in some antimicrobial-drug pathogen combinations. We also illustrate stronger effects of extreme climate risks on resistance growth compared to chronic risks in some antimicrobial-drug pathogen combinations. We emphasize the importance of a broader exploration of factors affecting AMR evolution from a one-health approach and enhanced AMR surveillance, among others, to produce effective policy responses to tame AMR.

Suggested Citation

  • Roshen Fernando, 2023. "Impact of Physical Climate Risks on Antimicrobial Resistance," CAMA Working Papers 2023-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-61
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2023-11/61_2023_fernando.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Antimicrobial resistance; Infectious diseases; Climate Change; Econometrics; Machine Learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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