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The Forecasting of Spot Exchange Rates Based on the Forward Exchange Rates

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  • Radim Gottwald

    () (Department of Finance, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno)

Abstract

The forecasting power of forward exchange rates for future spot exchange rates has been investigated by many researchers. In this paper, the author focuses on this topical economic theme too, and investigates the extent, to which the future spot exchange rates could be forecasted based on the current forward exchange rates. The paper aims at an assessment of the forecasting of spot USD/EUR exchange rates based on the forward exchange rates in the period from 2005 to 2013. Graphical and regression analyses are used to investigate the relationship between daily closing spot and forward rates, namely between 3 month rates and 6 month rates. The ordinary least squares method is used in order to forecast the chosen parameters. Hypotheses related to these parameters are tested at a significance level of 5%. By means of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test for a unit root in a time series sample, the author investigates whether the time series of the parameters is stationary. Afterwards, the time series is detrended in order to guarantee stationarity. Transformation into a non-linear econometric model with integrated autoregressive process AR(1) is used in order to reduce high positive autocorrelation in the residuals of the model. Thereafter, forecasts of the detrended model are made. Results revealed the following findings. According to the graphical analysis, the current forward exchange rates probably cannot be considered sufficiently reliable forecasters of the future spot exchange rates. According to the regression analysis, the forward forecasts even systematically undervalue the future spot exchange rates. Summarized, the current forward exchange rates cannot be considered sufficiently reliable forecasters of the future spot exchange rates. The above-mentioned findings are important for financial analysts working in financial companies or enterprises, which import or export some products, thus trading with foreign business partners using foreign currencies. Speculators on foreign exchange markets could make use of the presented findings as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Radim Gottwald, 2015. "The Forecasting of Spot Exchange Rates Based on the Forward Exchange Rates," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2015-52, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:men:wpaper:52_2015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    2. HeeJoon Kang, 1992. "Forward exchange rates as unbiased predictors of future spot rates a review and re-interpretation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 215-232, June.
    3. Jian Wang, 2008. "Why are exchange rates so difficult to predict?," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 3(jun).
    4. Neslihan Topbas, 2014. "Tests of Rationality in Turkish Foreign Exchange Market," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(2), pages 65-78.
    5. Emilio Dominguez & Alfonso Novales, 2002. "Can forward rates be used to improve interest rate forecasts?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 493-504.
    6. Rizwana Bashir & Rabia Shakir & Badar Ashfaq & Atif Hassan, 2014. "The Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 133-149, Jan-June.
    7. Christian Wolff, 2000. "Forward foreign exchange rates and expected future spot rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 371-377.
    8. Raj Aggarwal & Winston T. Lin & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2008. "Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 1-20, March-Jun.
    9. Raj Aggarwal & Sijing Zong, 2008. "Behavioral Biases in Forward Rates as Forecasts of Future Exchange Rates: Evidence of Systematic Pessimism and Under-Reaction," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(3-4), pages 241-277, September.
    10. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, 2009. "Forward Exchange Rate Puzzle: Joining the Missing Pieces in the Rand-US Dollar Exchange Market," Working Papers 122, Economic Research Southern Africa.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward exchange rate; spot exchange rate; rational expectations theory; currency pair; FOREX;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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