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The development and production of GDP flash estimates in a newly industrialised country: the case of South Africa

Author

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  • Mustapha, Nazeem
  • Djolov, George

Abstract

The experience accumulated from the development and production of a flash estimate of GDP as an official statistic at Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) is presented and discussed. This experience could inform national statistical organisations operating under similar statistical production constraints in other newly industrialised countries or elsewhere. The use of the flash estimate as an early indicator of business cycle slowdowns and upturns is also presented to demonstrate one possible by-product use of the flash estimate.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustapha, Nazeem & Djolov, George, 2010. "The development and production of GDP flash estimates in a newly industrialised country: the case of South Africa," MPRA Paper 39215, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39215
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39215/1/MPRA_paper_39215.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dennis Fixler, 2004. "Revisions to GDP Estimates in the U.S," BEA Papers 0046, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    2. Rumen Dobrinsky & Dieter Hesse & Rolf Traeger, 2006. "Understanding the Long-Term Growth Performance of the East European and CIS Economies," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2006_1, UNECE.
    3. S. A. Roberts, 1982. "A General Class of Holt-Winters Type Forecasting Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(7), pages 808-820, July.
    4. Marcus Scheiblecker & Sandra Steindl, 2006. "Austrian GDP Flash Estimates: A Description of Methods," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 11(2), pages 79-85, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Guerrero Víctor M. & García Andrea C. & Sainz Esperanza, 2013. "Rapid Estimates of Mexico’s Quarterly GDP," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 29(3), pages 397-423, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasts; flash estimates; national accounts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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