Understanding the Long-Term Growth Performance of the East European and CIS Economies

The paper analyses the determinants of long-term economic performance of east European and CIS economies in two periods: 1960-1989 (the era of central planning) and 1990-2005 (the transition to the market economy system). Throughout the 1960s and 1970s economic growth in eastern Europe progressively weakened and during the 1980s most of these economies plunged into a prolonged stagnation or recession, which contributed to the collapse of communism and central planning. The transition from plan to market began with the transformational recession, which persisted until the mid-1990s in eastern Europe, but was longer and deeper in the CIS. Since then, the east European and CIS economies have embarked on a path of strong economic growth. The recovery has been accompanied by a surge in fixed investment, often complemented by large inflows of FDI. Despite robust output growth, however, there has not been - at least so far - a noteworthy recovery in employment. The main feature of the recent strong economic growth in the region has been a remarkable upturn in both labour productivity and total factor productivity. The considerable gains in productive efficiency and rapid technological change were triggered by wide-ranging market reforms and the modernization of the capital stock. Gains in aggregate output per person employed have outpaced by a large margin increases in real GDP per capita. In terms of average productivity and real per capita income levels relative to those of the more developed, industrialized countries, the east European and CIS economies still face a long catching up process.