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Who Creates Jobs? Estimating Job Creation Rates at the Firm Level

  • Huber, Peter

    ()

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research)

  • Oberhofer, Harald

    ()

    (University of Salzburg)

  • Pfaffermayr , Michael

    ()

    (University of Innsbruck)

This paper analyzes econometric models of the Davis, Haltiwanger and Schuh (1996) job creation rate. In line with the most recent job creation literature, we focus on employment-weighted OLS estimation. Our main theoretical result reveals that employment-weighted OLS estimation of DHS job creation rate models provides biased marginal effects estimates. The reason for this is that by definition, the error terms for entering and exiting firms are non-stochastic and non-zero. This violates the crucial mean independence assumption requiring that the conditional expectation of the errors is zero for all firms. Consequently, we argue that firm entries and exits should be analyzed with separate econometric models and propose alternative maximum likelihood estimators which are easy to implement. A small-scale Monte Carlo analysis and an empirical exercise using the population of Austrian firms point to the relevance of our analytical findings.

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Paper provided by University of Salzburg in its series Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 2013-5.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 15 Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:sbgwpe:2013_005
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  1. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2006. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Working Papers 12354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Florian Stahl & Alfred Stiglbauer & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer & Josef Zweimüller, 2002. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in a Regulated Labor Market: The Case of Austria," Working Papers 78, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  3. David Neumark & Brandon Wall & Junfu Zhang, 2011. "Do Small Businesses Create More Jobs? New Evidence for the United States from the National Establishment Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 16-29, August.
  4. del Bono, Emilia & Weber, Andrea & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2008. "Clash of Career and Family: Fertility Decisions after Job Displacement," CEPR Discussion Papers 6719, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Fotini Voulgaris & Theodore Papadogonas & George Agiomirgianakis, 2005. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in Greek Manufacturing," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 289-301, 05.
  6. John Haltiwanger & Milan Vodopivec, 2002. "Worker Flows, Job Flows and Firm Wage Policies: An Analysis of Slovenia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 486, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  7. Haltiwanger, John C. & Vodopivec, Milan, 1999. "Gross worker and job flows in a transition economy : an analysis of Estonia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2082, The World Bank.
  8. Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction and Employment Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 3728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. David Card & Raj Chetty & Andrea Weber, 2007. "Cash-On-Hand and Competing Models of Intertemporal Behavior: New Evidence from the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(4), pages 1511-1560, November.
  10. Martina Fink & Esther Segalla & Andrea Weber & Christine Zulehner, 2010. "Extracting Firm Information from Administrative Records: The ASSD Firm Panel," NRN working papers 2010-04, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  11. Peter Huber & Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2014. "Job creation and the intra-distribution dynamics of the firm size distribution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 171-197, February.
  12. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Who Creates Jobs? Small vs. Large vs. Young," Working Papers 10-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  13. R. Jason Faberman, 2003. "Job Flows and Establishment Characteristics: Variations Across U.S. Metropolitan Areas," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-609, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  14. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
  15. Gürtzgen, Nicole, 2009. "Firm Heterogeneity and Wages Under Different Bargaining Regimes: Does a Centralised Union Care for Low-productivity Firms?," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-130, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  16. John Baldwin & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger, 1994. "A Comparison of Job Creation and Job Destruction in Canada and the United States," NBER Working Papers 4726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Fuchs, Michaela & Weyh, Antje, 2008. "The determinants of job creation and destruction: plant-level evidence for Eastern and Western Germany," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 02/08, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  18. Rikke Ibsen & Niels Westergaard-Nielsen, 2005. "Job Creation and Destruction over the Business Cycles and the Impact on Individual Job Flows in Denmark 1980-2001," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 89(2), pages 183-207, June.
  19. Richard E. Caves, 1998. "Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1947-1982, December.
  20. Peter Huber & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2010. "Testing for Conditional Convergence in Variance and Skewness: The Firm Size Distribution Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(5), pages 648-668, October.
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