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Who Creates Jobs? Estimating Job Creation Rates at the Firm Level

Listed author(s):
  • Huber, Peter

    ()

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research)

  • Oberhofer, Harald

    ()

    (University of Salzburg)

  • Pfaffermayr , Michael

    ()

    (University of Innsbruck)

This paper analyzes econometric models of the Davis, Haltiwanger and Schuh (1996) job creation rate. In line with the most recent job creation literature, we focus on employment-weighted OLS estimation. Our main theoretical result reveals that employment-weighted OLS estimation of DHS job creation rate models provides biased marginal effects estimates. The reason for this is that by definition, the error terms for entering and exiting firms are non-stochastic and non-zero. This violates the crucial mean independence assumption requiring that the conditional expectation of the errors is zero for all firms. Consequently, we argue that firm entries and exits should be analyzed with separate econometric models and propose alternative maximum likelihood estimators which are easy to implement. A small-scale Monte Carlo analysis and an empirical exercise using the population of Austrian firms point to the relevance of our analytical findings.

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Paper provided by University of Salzburg in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 2013-5.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 15 Nov 2013
Handle: RePEc:ris:sbgwpe:2013_005
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Web page: http://www.uni-salzburg.at/index.php?id=31318

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  1. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Emilia Del Bono & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2012. "Clash Of Career And Family: Fertility Decisions After Job Displacement," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 659-683, August.
  3. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2012. "The Contribution of Large and Small Employers to Job Creation in Times of High and Low Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2509-2539, October.
  4. John Baldwin & Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger, 1998. "A Comparison Of Job Creation And Job Destruction In Canada And The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 347-356, August.
  5. Guertzgen Nicole, 2009. "Firm Heterogeneity and Wages under Different Bargaining Regimes: Does a Centralised Union Care for Low-Productivity Firms?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 239-253, April.
  6. David Card & Raj Chetty & Andrea Weber, 2007. "Cash-on-Hand and Competing Models of Intertemporal Behavior: New Evidence from the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(4), pages 1511-1560.
  7. Alfred Stiglbauer & Florian Stahl & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer & Josef Zweimüller, 2003. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in a Regulated Labor Market: The Case of Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 127-148, June.
  8. John Haltiwanger & Milan Vodopivec, 2002. "Worker Flows, Job Flows and Firm Wage Policies: An Analysis of Slovenia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 486, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  9. Fotini Voulgaris & Theodore Papadogonas & George Agiomirgianakis, 2005. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in Greek Manufacturing," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 289-301, May.
  10. Peter Huber & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2010. "Testing for Conditional Convergence in Variance and Skewness: The Firm Size Distribution Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(5), pages 648-668, October.
  11. Haltiwanger, John C. & Vodopivec, Milan, 2002. "Gross worker and job flows in a transition economy: an analysis of Estonia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 601-630, November.
  12. Rikke Ibsen & Niels Westergaard-Nielsen, 2005. "Job Creation and Destruction over the Business Cycles and the Impact on Individual Job Flows in Denmark 1980-2001," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(2), pages 183-207, June.
  13. John C. Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Who Creates Jobs? Small vs. Large vs. Young," NBER Working Papers 16300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. David Neumark & Brandon Wall & Junfu Zhang, 2011. "Do Small Businesses Create More Jobs? New Evidence for the United States from the National Establishment Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 16-29, August.
  15. Peter Huber & Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2014. "Job creation and the intra-distribution dynamics of the firm size distribution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 171-197, February.
  16. Richard E. Caves, 1998. "Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1947-1982, December.
  17. Martina Fink & Esther Segalla & Andrea Weber & Christine Zulehner, 2010. "Extracting Firm Information from Administrative Records: The ASSD Firm Panel," NRN working papers 2010-04, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  18. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
  19. Michaela Fuchs & Antje Weyh, 2010. "The determinants of job creation and destruction: plant-level evidence for Eastern and Western Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 425-444, November.
  20. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
  21. R. Jason Faberman, 2003. "Job Flows and Establishment Characteristics: Variations Across U.S. Metropolitan Areas," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-609, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
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