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Global financial crisis and VaR performance in emerging markets: A case of EU candidate states - Turkey and Croatia


  • Sasa Zikovic

    () (University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, Rijeka, Croatia)

  • Bora Aktan

    (Yasar University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Izmir, Turkey)


We investigate the relative performance of a wide array of Value at Risk (VaR) models with the daily returns of Turkish (XU100) and Croatian (CROBEX) stock index prior to and during the ongoing financial crisis. In addition to widely used VaR models, we also study the behaviour of conditional and unconditional extreme value theory (EVT) and hybrid historical simulation (HHS) models to generate 95, 99 and 99.5% confidence level estimates. Results indicate that during the crisis period all tested VaR model except EVT and HHS models seriously underpredict the true level of risk, with EVT models doing so at a higher cost of capital com- pared to HHS model.

Suggested Citation

  • Sasa Zikovic & Bora Aktan, 2009. "Global financial crisis and VaR performance in emerging markets: A case of EU candidate states - Turkey and Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 149-170.
  • Handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:27:y:2009:i:1:p:149-170

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ozun, Alper & Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait, 2007. "Filtered Extreme Value Theory for Value-At-Risk Estimation," MPRA Paper 3302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lidija Barjaktarović & Maja Paunović & Dejan Ječmenica, 2013. "Development of the Banking Sector in CEE Countries – Comparative Analysis," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 2(2), pages 93-114.
    2. Abad, Pilar & Benito, Sonia, 2013. "A detailed comparison of value at risk estimates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 258-276.
    3. Shcherba, Alexandr, 2012. "Market risk valuation modeling for the European countries at the financial crisis of 2008," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 27(3), pages 20-35.
    4. Bucevska Vesna, 2013. "An Empirical Evaluation of GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Evidence from the Macedonian Stock Exchange," Business Systems Research, De Gruyter Open, vol. 4(1), pages 49-64, March.
    5. Goran Andjelic & Ivana Milosev & Vladimir Djakovic, 2010. "Extreme Value Theory In Emerging Markets," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 55(185), pages 63-106, April - J.
    6. Mirjana Miletić & Siniša Miletić, 2016. "Performance of VaR in Developed and CEE Countries during the Global Financial Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 54-75, March.
    7. Julija Cerović & Vesna Karadžić, 2015. "Extreme Value Theory In Emerging Markets: Evidence From Montenegrin Stock Exchange," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 87-116, July - Se.
    8. Cerović Julija & Lipovina-Božović Milena & Vujošević Saša, 2015. "A Comparative Analysis of Value at Risk Measurement on Emerging Stock Markets: Case of Montenegro," Business Systems Research, De Gruyter Open, vol. 6(1), pages 36-55, March.

    More about this item


    financial crisis; emerging markets; Value at Risk; extreme value theory; hybrid historical simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods


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