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Market risk valuation modeling for the European countries at the financial crisis of 2008

Author

Listed:
  • Shcherba, Alexandr

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow)

Abstract

The work is dedicated to VaR models, estimated on the equities quotes of the six European countries. The time series cover three economic periods — pre crisis, crisis and post crisis, where the crisis period is the financial crunch of the 2008 year. The volatility estimation is based on the four APARCH(1,1) models and six distribution functions. The results of the investigation show the connection of the model with country's economic development and its financial condition at the different periods of time.

Suggested Citation

  • Shcherba, Alexandr, 2012. "Market risk valuation modeling for the European countries at the financial crisis of 2008," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 27(3), pages 20-35.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0176
    as

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    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2012_3_20-35.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    3. Sasa Zikovic & Bora Aktan, 2009. "Global financial crisis and VaR performance in emerging markets: A case of EU candidate states - Turkey and Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 149-170.
    4. Lopez, Jose A, 2001. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 87-109, March.
    5. Roxana Chiriac & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2010. "How Risky Is the Value at Risk?," Working Paper series 07_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    7. Enrique Sentana, 1995. "Quadratic ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(4), pages 639-661.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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    11. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis: existence, persistence, and comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1699-1737, August.
    12. repec:cdl:ucsbec:3-00 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Anders Wilhelmsson, 2006. "Garch forecasting performance under different distribution assumptions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 561-578.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shcherba, Alexandr, 2014. "Comparing «Realized volatility» models in the VaR calculation for the Russian equity market," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 34(2), pages 120-136.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VaR; APARCH; market risk; financial crisis 2008;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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