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When the U.S. Stock Market Becomes Extreme?

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  • Sofiane Aboura

    () (Department of Finance, DRM-Finance, Université de Paris-Dauphine, Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775 Paris CEDEX 16, France)

Abstract

Over the last three decades, the world economy has been facing stock market crashes, currency crisis, the dot-com and real estate bubble burst, credit crunch and banking panics. As a response, extreme value theory (EVT) provides a set of ready-made approaches to risk management analysis. However, EVT is usually applied to standardized returns to offer more reliable results, but remains difficult to interpret in the real world. This paper proposes a quantile regression to transform standardized returns into theoretical raw returns making them economically interpretable. An empirical test is carried out on the S&P500 stock index from 1950 to 2013. The main results indicate that the U.S stock market becomes extreme from a price variation of ±1.5% and the largest one-day decline of the 2007–2008 period is likely, on average, to be exceeded one every 27 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Sofiane Aboura, 2014. "When the U.S. Stock Market Becomes Extreme?," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 1-15, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:2:y:2014:i:2:p:211-225:d:36605
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    extreme value theory; volatility; risk management;

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • M2 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics
    • M4 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting
    • K2 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law

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