Balance of payments flows and exchange rate prediction in Japan
Monetary models of exchange rates tend to focus on inflation differentials to explain exchange rate movements. This paper assesses the ability of currency flows to predict exchange rate changes. The focus is on Japan. Currency flows are assumed to depend on the level of the current account and on the international investment position, where the latter is used as a proxy for international debt repayments. A state space model is used to predict simultaneously the exchange rate and its determinants. Using rolling regressions and out-of-sample predictions, it is shown that a model featuring currency flows can predict the direction of exchange rate movements better than a random walk (with or without drift). However, as happens with standard macroeconomic models, the model is not able to outperform a random walk in terms of the mean square prediction error criterion.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Francisco Tomás y Valiente, 5, 28049 Madrid|
Web page: http://www.uam.es/departamentos/economicas/analecon/default.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paolo Vitale, 2007.
"A Guided Tour Of The Market Microstructure Approach To Exchange Rate Determination,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 903-934, December.
- Vitale, Paolo, 2004. "A Guided Tour of the Market Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," CEPR Discussion Papers 4530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2002.
"Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?,"
NBER Working Papers
9393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Antonio Garcia Pascual & Menzie David Chinn, 2004. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties; Are Any Fit to Survive?," IMF Working Papers 04/73, International Monetary Fund.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5fc508pt, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia-Pascual, 2005. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Working Papers 122005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt12z9x4c5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt5fc508pt, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
- Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas A., 2010. "Balance of payments accounting and exchange rate dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-63, January.
- Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2007. "An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228874.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Ron Alquist, 2006.
"Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment,"
NBER Working Papers
12481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13.
- Nikolas Müller-Plantenberg, 2003. "Japan's Imbalance of Payments," CESifo Working Paper Series 1089, CESifo Group Munich.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uam:wpaper:201209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andrés Maroto-Sánchez)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.