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Methodology Of Scenario Forecasting Of Russia’S Economic Development


  • Mikhailenko, Kirill

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Moscow, Russian Federation)


The author argues that the Russian economy has unique features that make the application of standard macroeconomic models problematic. He supports the idea of developing new instruments of analysis and forecasting of social and economic development of the Russian economy. The proposed modelling complex is composed of a database and three models. The first model is elaborated for short term forecasting of basic macroeconomic indicators. The second model is a quarterly scenario forecasting of Russian economy in the medium run. The third model realizes forecasts of annual balances in the framework of the System of National Accounts. The forecasting exercises of the complex modelling are realised under two alternative scenario, an optimistic scenario and a pessimistic scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhailenko, Kirill, 2003. "Methodology Of Scenario Forecasting Of Russia’S Economic Development," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 78-91, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2003:i:5:p:78-91

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    3. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    4. Croitoru, Lucian & Tarhoaca, Cornel, 2003. "The Romanian Growth Potential – A Cge Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 7-22, December.
    5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item


    macroeconomic modelling; forecasting; economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity


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