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Can wage changes solve the labour crisis in the National Health Service?

Author

Listed:
  • Xingzuo Zhou

    (University College London)

  • Jolene Skordis

    (University College London)

  • Junjian Yi

    (National School of Development, Peking University)

  • Yiang Li

    (University of Chicago)

  • Jonathan Clarke

    (Imperial College London)

  • Hongkun Zhang

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the healthcare labour demand and supply elasticity regarding wage in the National Health Service (NHS) in England amid a labour crisis. A simultaneous error-correction regression analysis was conducted using secondary data from the NHS and Office for National Statistics from 2009 Q3 to 2022 Q1. Findings indicate both labour demand and supply of HCHS doctors in the NHS are highly inelastic with respect to real wages, with only a 0.1% decrease in NHS staff hiring and a 0.8% rise in NHS staff’s willingness to work as full-time equivalents per 10% wage increase. Approximately 22% of the wage disequilibrium adjusts quarterly, indicating moderate speed of wage adjustment. Our results suggest that wage setting is not a sufficient solution to the labour crisis. Innovative and sustainable solutions are needed to reduce the demand for skilled health labour and increase the supply of health labour.

Suggested Citation

  • Xingzuo Zhou & Jolene Skordis & Junjian Yi & Yiang Li & Jonathan Clarke & Hongkun Zhang, 2025. "Can wage changes solve the labour crisis in the National Health Service?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 26(5), pages 839-853, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eujhec:v:26:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s10198-024-01737-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10198-024-01737-4
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    National Health Service (NHS); Labour market; Macroeconometrical modelling; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J45 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Public Sector Labor Markets

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