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Medium-term projection model of the National Bank of Serbia

Listed author(s):
  • Mirko Djukic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Jelena Momcilovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Ljubica Trajcev

    (National Bank of Serbia)

Registered author(s):

    Medium-term projections are an important element of the decision-making process in an inflation targeting regime, that the National Bank of Serbia has been implementing for the past several years. The main goal of medium-term projections is to give an answer to what should be the policy rate path that would ensure that inflation in the coming period moves close to the targeted inflation rate. The most important tool for medium-term projections is a macroeconomic model, which is a set of equations aiming to describe the price-formation mechanism in Serbia and the transmission channel of monetary policy to prices. The model is comprised of four main behavioral equations for inflation, exchange rate, output gap and policy rate, and of a number of side behavioral equations and identities. For estimating trends and gaps on history, we use multivariate Kalman filter. The model in the current form has been used since end-2008 and is subject to regular adjustments and improvements.

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    Paper provided by National Bank of Serbia in its series Working papers with number 17.

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    Length: 41 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2010
    Handle: RePEc:nsb:wpaper:17
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    National Bank of Serbia, 12 Kralja Petra St, 11 000 Belgrade, Republic of Serbia

    Phone: 381-11/3248-841
    Fax: 381-11/3234-120
    Web page:

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