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Medium-term projection model of the National Bank of Serbia


  • Mirko Djukic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Jelena Momcilovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Ljubica Trajcev

    (National Bank of Serbia)


Medium-term projections are an important element of the decision-making process in an inflation targeting regime, that the National Bank of Serbia has been implementing for the past several years. The main goal of medium-term projections is to give an answer to what should be the policy rate path that would ensure that inflation in the coming period moves close to the targeted inflation rate. The most important tool for medium-term projections is a macroeconomic model, which is a set of equations aiming to describe the price-formation mechanism in Serbia and the transmission channel of monetary policy to prices. The model is comprised of four main behavioral equations for inflation, exchange rate, output gap and policy rate, and of a number of side behavioral equations and identities. For estimating trends and gaps on history, we use multivariate Kalman filter. The model in the current form has been used since end-2008 and is subject to regular adjustments and improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirko Djukic & Jelena Momcilovic & Ljubica Trajcev, 2010. "Medium-term projection model of the National Bank of Serbia," Working papers 17, National Bank of Serbia.
  • Handle: RePEc:nsb:wpaper:17

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    More about this item


    medium-term projection model; inflation targeting; Kalman filter;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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