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Econometric Model For Forecasting Traffic On Croatian Motorways

Author

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  • Drago Pupavac

    (Polytechnic of Rijeka, Republic of Croatia)

Abstract

The basic objective of this scientific debate is to develop an econometric model for forecasting traffic on Croatian motorways. After many trial and errors procedures, two econometric models have been developed: one for the average annual daily traffic (Y=-2078,11-280,9GP+0,0012RV+0,695TA+4,129NE, r=0,85) and one for the average summer daily traffic (Y=7452-1097,55GP+0,00746RV+2,076TA- 9,5NE, r=0,91). In both models, the GDP was dismissed as a variable which directly affects the traffic on Croatian motorways. In both models gasoline prices(GP), the number of registered personal vehicles (RV), the number of tourist arrivals (TA) and the number of employees (NE) were selected as explanatory variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Drago Pupavac, 2014. "Econometric Model For Forecasting Traffic On Croatian Motorways," Interdisciplinary Management Research, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 10, pages 891-900.
  • Handle: RePEc:osi:journl:v:10:y:2014:p:891-900
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometrics; model; Croatian motorways; average traffic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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