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The impact of the retirement age increase on the poverty level of the Russian population: Microsimulation analysis


  • Gorlin, Yury

    (RANEPA, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Kartseva, Marina

    (RANEPA, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Lyashok, Victor

    (RANEPA, FRI, Moscow, Russian Federation)


This paper analyzes the impact of the recent retirement age increase in the Russian Federation on the level of absolute income poverty of the population in the period 2018–2028. The main research method is microsimulation analysis. The results of the work show that the level of absolute income poverty of the population of the Russian Federation is almost neutral to the retirement age increase. However, the poverty rate of pre-pensioners as a result of raising the retirement age may slightly increase. The magnitude of the effect varies depending on the education of pre-pensioners.

Suggested Citation

  • Gorlin, Yury & Kartseva, Marina & Lyashok, Victor, 2019. "The impact of the retirement age increase on the poverty level of the Russian population: Microsimulation analysis," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 54, pages 26-50.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0366

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2016. "Nonparametric Evidence on the Effects of Financial Incentives on Retirement Decisions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 160-182, November.
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    5. Yuri Ì. Gorlin & Elena E. Grishina & Victor Y. Lyashok & Vitaly V. Fedorov, 2017. "Increase in Retirement Age: Experience of Foreign Countries and the Assessment of the Effects for Russia," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russia, issue 6, pages 85-97, December.
    6. Volchkova, Natalya & Lobanov , Sergey & Turdyeva, Natalia & Khaleeva, Julia & Yudaeva, Ksenia, 2006. "Microsimulation Analysis of the Consequences of Monetization of Social Benefits in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 4(4), pages 105-134.
    7. Vestad, Ola Lotherington, 2013. "Labour supply effects of early retirement provision," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 98-109.
    8. Fehr, Hans & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian, 2012. "Pension reform with variable retirement age: a simulation analysis for Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 389-417, July.
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    More about this item


    retirement age; poverty; microsimulation analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs


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