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A New INAR(1) Model for ℤ-Valued Time Series Using the Relative Binomial Thinning Operator

Author

Listed:
  • Kachour Maher

    (ESSCA School of Management, Lyon, France)

  • Bakouch Hassan S.

    (Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Qassim University, Buraydah, Saudi Arabia)

  • Mohammadi Zohreh

    (Department of Statistics, Jahrom University, Jahrom, Iran)

Abstract

A new first-order integer-valued autoregressive process (INAR(1)) with extended Poisson innovations is introduced based on a signed version of the thinning operator, called relative binomial thinning operator, which can be considered as an extension of standard binomial thinning operator introduced by Steutel, F.W. and van Harn, K. (1979. Discrete analogues of self-decomposability and stability. Ann. Probab. 7: 893–899). It is appropriate for modeling Z $\mathbb{Z}$ -valued time series and either positive or negative correlations. Some properties of the process are established. Conditional least squares, Yule–Walker and conditional maximum likelihood methods are considered for the parameter estimation of the model. Moreover, simulation experiments are carried out to attest to the performance of the estimation methods. The applicability of the proposed model is investigated through a practical data set of the Saudi stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Kachour Maher & Bakouch Hassan S. & Mohammadi Zohreh, 2023. "A New INAR(1) Model for ℤ-Valued Time Series Using the Relative Binomial Thinning Operator," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(2), pages 125-152, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:243:y:2023:i:2:p:125-152:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2022-0059
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hee-Young Kim & Yousung Park, 2008. "A non-stationary integer-valued autoregressive model," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 485-502, July.
    2. Annika Homburg & Christian H. Weiß & Layth C. Alwan & Gabriel Frahm & Rainer Göb, 2019. "Evaluating Approximate Point Forecasting of Count Processes," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-28, July.
    3. Christian Weiß, 2008. "Thinning operations for modeling time series of counts—a survey," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 92(3), pages 319-341, August.
    4. Hassan S. Bakouch & Maher Kachour & Saralees Nadarajah, 2016. "An extended Poisson distribution," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(22), pages 6746-6764, November.
    5. R. Freeland, 2010. "True integer value time series," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 94(3), pages 217-229, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    time series; signed thinning operator; extended Poisson distribution; simulation; Pearson residuals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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